NCAA Basketball: 3 over/under-ranked teams in preseason AP top 25 poll
Under-ranked: Memphis
Let’s state the obvious immediately: the Memphis Tigers have the potential to be absolutely dominant in college basketball this season. Being ranked 12th is, honestly, fairly understandable – the Tigers have yet to reach the NCAA Tournament under Penny Hardaway, who now enters his fourth season at the helm – but this may be his best opportunity yet.
Coming off a 2020-21 campaign that saw Memphis claim the NIT Championship over Mississippi State and finish with a 20-8 overall record, the Tigers featured three double-digit scorers on that squad – and will bring back the top two in Landers Nolley II (13.1) and DeAndre Williams (11.7). Additionally, Lester Quinones will return after averaging 9.5 points and 5.8 caroms.
And, despite losing significant contributors in Boogie Ellis, D.J. Jeffries, and Moussa Cisse, Hardaway and staff – now rounded out by Larry Brown and Rasheed Wallace, for what it’s worth – have filled the gaps left by those departures by bringing in the highest-ranked overall recruiting class in the nation, headed by a pair of five-star newcomers in Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren.
It is no mystery that Hardaway’s Tigers have struggled to meet expectations when featuring a highly-touted recruit – look no further than the James Wiseman debacle in 2019-20 – but both Bates and Duren have impressed in Memphis’ exhibitions against LeMoyne-Owen and Lane. Duren has recorded averages of 11.5 points and 5.5 boards, while Bates – who did not suit up against LeMoyne-Owen – tallied 12 points against Lane.
No team maintained a better defensive efficiency in the country than Memphis last season, per KenPom – and they ranked second defensively in 3P% (27.7%) and 43rd in 2P% (46.2%). Offensively, meanwhile, Memphis turned the ball over just 15.6 times a game (30th in the nation), nabbed 8.9 steals (13th), dished 16.0 assists (29th), and hauled down 40.0 rebounds (11th) – all the while shooting a 62nd-best 3PT-clip of 36.3%.
The Tigers were good last season – but they struggled to secure any resume-building win that was presented to them. They lost to Western Kentucky, Auburn, and Houston – twice – by an average of 3.5 points, dropped an early-season game to VCU, and – inexcusably – were swept by Tulsa and fell to SMU. But their four wins in the NIT – particularly their nail-biter over Boise State and demolition of Colorado State – showcased just how good Memphis could be, especially on the defensive end, where they limited the Broncos and Rams, as well as Dayton and Mississippi State, to a combined mark of 0.83 points per possession.
And now, with Bates and Duren on board and spearheading the top recruiting class in the nation, Memphis has all the keys to be a legitimate Final Four contender – and it is not out of the realm of possibility to see this team in the top 10 within the first month. Whether Hardaway can finally crack through into the NCAA Tournament has yet to be seen, and any pessimism is understandable – but there should be no reason as to why the Tigers cannot claw into the upper echelons of college basketball almost immediately.