NCAA Basketball: 3 over/under-ranked teams in preseason AP top 25 poll

Over-ranked: Tennessee

Checking in at 18th makes it hard to presume that the Volunteers are actually over-ranked, considering they are placed near the bottom of the poll – but it is worth debating if Tennessee can live up to expectations this time around – or if the Volunteers will falter like they did last season.

After a postponed start to the year due to head coach Rick Barnes testing positive for COVID-19, the Volunteers entered 2020-21 ranked 12th in the nation – and quickly propelled themselves into the top 10 within a week and a half, where they would remain until mid-January.  That initial stretch saw Tennessee pick up a few significant, good wins – including a season-opening victory over Colorado, a 20-point demolition of Missouri on the road, and a five-point edge against Arkansas.

And then all went wrong with the Volunteers, who were hideously annihilated at Florida in a 26-point loss in mid-January – and then rebounded a week later by steamrolling Kansas, only to fall at Ole Miss just days later.  Tennessee limped to the postseason after the loss to the Rebels, going 4-3 to end the regular season – which included getting thrashed by LSU and Kentucky – and falling out of the AP Poll altogether.  Back-to-back postseason losses – Alabama in the SEC Tournament and Oregon State in March Madness – ended what should have been a historic season for Tennessee.

Much of the optimism surrounding Tennessee at the dawn of the season was centered around a pair of All-SEC returners in John Fulkerson and Yves Pons – and the potential stardom of two five-star recruits in Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer.  Those hopes were essentially dashed come the SEC regular season, where the Volunteers struggled mightily on the offensive end, averaging 69.1 points on 0.89 points per possession – all the while shooting woeful clips of 42.7% on FGs and 31.9% on three-pointers.

That same optimism is still around this season, albeit limited, considering the Volunteers are now ranked 18th rather than 12th – because, despite the losses of Springer, Pons, and Johnson, Tennessee will be bringing in the top-ranked point guard in the country in Kennedy Chandler, the seventh-ranked power forward in Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, the seventh-ranked center in Jonas Aidoo, and an impact transfer in Auburn’s Justin Powell – all the while returning Fulkerson.

Obviously, a good chunk of teams in the AP Poll are ranked based on potential – but Tennessee’s returners failed to prove that their team deserved to be among the top 25 last season.  And, with Pons gone, this team is even further ranked on pure potential – meaning that the Volunteers’ reliance on their newcomers to supply star-power will be pivotal to their success.  Given what transpired last year, however, it is easy to remain hesitant about Tennessee.

Tennessee’s Hall of Fame Tip-Off showcase against Villanova and either Purdue or North Carolina in mid-November will say much about the Volunteers’ legitimacy – but it may ultimately come down to whether Tennessee can avoid slipping up against ailing programs in the SEC, particularly in embarrassing fashion, that may determine whether this preseason ranking is warranted.