Duke and Gonzaga meet in Las Vegas in a highly anticipated showdown; can the Blue Devils find a way to slow the Bulldogs’ early roll?
TV schedule: Friday, November 26, 10:30 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
To this point, things have been going according to plan for Duke (6-0), off to an unbeaten start in Coach K’s final season leading the Blue Devils. Since an opening night win over Kentucky, Duke has taken care of a slew of mid-majors at home, most recently upending The Citadel on Monday night. This game will mark a significant rise in challenge.
For starters, freshman forward Paolo Banchero (17.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg) has been as good as advertised, leading the way with 28 points against The Citadel earlier this week. His frontcourt partner is talented junior Wendell Moore (17.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 5.7 apg), who added 22 points in that victory this week. Freshman guard Trevor Keels (13.3 ppg) has been an instant contributor, while plenty others are playing major roles for the Blue Devils.
Duke sits at 5th in the AP Top 25 and at 8th in the most recent KenPom ratings. The Blue Devils have played very solidly on offense, and sit in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, while the defense has for the most part been dynamic. Some sharpshooting from The Citadel dull those ratings, but beforehand, Duke had given up less than 60 points in four straight games, though that’s not likely to happen in this particular game.
Across the court enters the team that incomparably sits as the best in the nation. Gonzaga (6-0) nearly ran the table last season, losing their unbeaten season in the national title game, and appear to be even better this year. The Bulldogs have already taken care of a pair of top 5 opponents, running rampant on #2 UCLA this past Tuesday night in an impressive showing.
First and foremost, the Bulldogs might have the best player in the nation, with forward Drew Timme (18.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg) fantastic in virtually every aspect and leading this program back towards glory. This season introduced the nation to freshman center Chet Holmgren (12.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg), a lanky shot-blocking machine who really impacts games. This roster is truly unfair when you throw in one of the nation’s best point guards in senior guard Andrew Nembhard (7.0 ppg, 4.8 apg), who scored 24 points in that win against UCLA.
Gonzaga is the best team in the nation and as such sit atop the AP Top 25, the KenPom rankings, and virtually every other used ratings system. They have the #1 offense in the nation and their defense has been very solid to this point in the season; it certainly was working against UCLA, with their fast break offense smothering the Bruins early and often.
How will Banchero and Moore match up against these bigs for Gonzaga? If Duke wants to avoid getting run out of the gym like UCLA, they’ll need to avoid allowing the Bulldogs to get into fast breaks and will need those forwards to get going. That’s no easy task against Holmgren. There are threats on this team beyond those we’ve mentioned for the Bulldogs, and it’s a sure thing that someone on Gonzaga is going to find their stroke during this game.
It’s hard to wonder how anyone can beat this Gonzaga team if the #2 team in the nation couldn’t come close, but that’s not being fair to UCLA, nor to this Duke team that looks hungry and talented. Clearly, Duke can’t let Gonzaga get a big lead early because this Bulldogs team will coast all the way to a win. To win, the Blue Devils need to start fast, play smart, and perhaps fluster those bigs for the Bulldogs, but I’m less optimistic about their chances.