We are roughly one month into the NCAA Basketball season, meaning that we have a large enough sample size to draw decent conclusions from. The ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 have all started conference play as the non-conference portion of most teams’ schedules draw to a close in the next few weeks.
The goal of this piece is not to pick the worst team in each traditional “Power 6” conference (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC). I’m simply here to highlight the most disappointing team from each power conference relative to preseason expectations laid out in polls and predictive metrics.
ACC: Virginia
The ACC gave me a lot of potential options between Florida State, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Virginia, but I eventually settled on UVA purely based on potential (or lack thereof). Florida State and Virginia Tech have been disappointing, but there is a logical path for them to figure things out and push back towards the Top 25 at some point this season. Virginia’s ceiling feels low.
Virginia was the No. 25 team in the Preseason AP Top 25 but immediately gave that up with an opening-night home loss to Navy. One week later the Cavaliers lost to No. 15 Houston in a true road game. Losing that game is not concerning by itself but the fashion in which they lost is—in a 20-point blowout that saw Virginia fail to reach 50 points. UVA did get a quality win over Providence on a neutral court just over a week before losing another home game to Iowa.
One of the most concerning results of the early season came in Virginia’s most recent win over Pittsburgh. Needing a buzzer-beater to beat this Pitt team at home is less than ideal.
Virginia ranks No. 49 in KenP0m and No. 70 in the NET rankings. They rank No. 80 and No. 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively.
East Carolina transfer F Jayden Gardner (14.1 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Indiana transfer G Armaan Franklin (11.6 PPG) lead the team in scoring, but overall this team lacks confidence offensively. I would argue that Tony Bennett has no single player who he can trust to create either for himself or for his teammates offensively.
Even a coach like Bennett with a system so consistent that it tricked AP voters into ranking them in the preseason poll will struggle to get this team back to national relevancy this season. The potential of Virginia in 2021-22 feels like it has dropped from their usual Final Four aspirations to hoping they can earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament.