Fran McCaffrey and the Iowa Hawkeyes look to prevent a 3-game skid as they travel to Ames to take on T.J. Otzelberger’s No. 17 Iowa State Cyclones.
TV schedule: Thursday, Dec. 9 – 9:00 PM ET, ESPN2
Arena: Hilton Coliseum – Ames, IA
Iowa and Iowa State have met 52 times on the hardwood since the men’s basketball series was renewed back in 1970 after a 35-year pause that started in 1935. Iowa leads the all-time series 47-27, but since that 1970 restart, the series is a much more even 29-23. The Cyclones are 11-9 in the last 20 matchups and 14-6 in the last 20 games at Hilton Coliseum in Ames.
The Hawkeyes are coming off of two straight losses, the first of which came at No. 1 Purdue, a game that Iowa kept impressively close considering the strength of their opponent as well as the absence of their best player in Keegan Murray (23.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 64.0 eFG%), who missed the game due to an ankle injury. The second loss came at home to an Illinois team that was without its starting point guard in Andre Curbelo. This puts Iowa at 7-2 overall with a quality road win over Virginia.
Iowa State’s start to the season has been astonishing. This is a team that went 2-22 last season (0-18 in the Big 12), fired its head coach, and has had 10 players enter the transfer portal. The Cyclones are now 8-0 to start the season with neutral site wins over Xavier and Memphis and a true road win at Creighton.
First-year Head Coach T.J. Otzelberger has facilitated an almost impossibly instantaneous turnaround with a heavy dose of incoming transfers and freshmen. A trio of guards has led the way with Penn State transfer Izaiah Brockington (16.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Minnesota transfer Gabe Kalscheur (12.1 PPG, 2.0 SPG), and freshman point guard Tyrese Hunter (11.6 PPG, 5.4 APG, 2.8 SPG).
As we’ve seen quite often over the years, these two teams play somewhat contrasting styles. Fran McCaffery’s Hawkeyes are an offensive powerhouse, ranking No. 5 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. They rank in the top 50 in eFG%, 2P%, 3P%, and have the lowest turnover rate in the nation. That said, Iowa’s defensive struggles have also carried over from the last several seasons, ranking dead last in the Big Ten in adj. defensive efficiency after giving up 87 points to Illinois in their most recent loss.
The Cyclones have thrived to start the season largely because of their defense, holding teams to 60.1 PPG with the sixth-best forced turnover rate in the country. They also rank No. 19 in 3P% and eFG% defense. Iowa State has a guard-centric rotation that has been able to bother opposing teams with pressure so far.
The most glaring statistic for each team is in direct contrast with the other—Iowa is No. 1 in turnover rate while Iowa State is No. 6 in forced turnover rate. The winner of that battle will be well on their way to a quality win on Thursday night in Ames.
Iowa remains unranked in the AP Top 25, although they are No. 17 in the NET and No. 21 in KenPom. Iowa State is No. 17 in the AP Top 25—their highest ranking in 1,000+ days—but is ranked No. 21 in the NET and No. 65 in KenPom. The results through the first month of the season clearly favor ISU while the analytics lean towards the Hawkeyes.
At the end of the day, I lean towards the Cyclones largely because of their physicality and aggression defensively. The inevitably raucous environment at Hilton Coliseum doesn’t hurt their chances, either.