Both Dayton and Ole Miss have been up and down so far this season. Which team will bounce back and pick up a much-needed win on Saturday?
Game time: Saturday, December 18, 6:30 p.m. ET
TV schedule: SEC Network
Location: SJB Pavilion, Oxford, MS
It’s an old sports cliché: “Which version of will show up tonight?” But in the case of this weekend’s matchup between Dayton and Ole Miss, it feels pretty applicable. The two teams will meet on the hardwood on Saturday evening, and if you’ve watched either of them this season, it’s clear that they both come with some question marks. Which leaves this game almost impossible to predict. Let’s dive in and try to do just that.
First up is Dayton, a team that holds some pretty major wins on the young season. They’re 7-4 on the year, with victories over the likes of Kansas, Belmont, and Virginia Tech. But that’s balanced out with three pretty horrific losses to UMass-Lowell, Lipscomb, and Austin Peay. The good news is that the Flyers have found some stability in recent weeks, winning six of their last seven.
But they’re 0-1 in true road games after dropping a 77-69 decision at SMU earlier this month. There’s plenty of good and bad to go around, but it’s been mostly good for UD since Thanksgiving. That bodes well for them as they try to snag another big win on Saturday.
When the Flyers are playing well, their attack is solidly balanced. Anthony Grant has eight players averaging five or more points a night, which highlights both their depth and versatility. USC transfer Elijah Weaver leads the charge with 11.0 points per game while shooting it at 53 percent from the field (and nearly 42 percent from three). True freshman Daron Holmes II is Dayton’s threat in the paint, checking in at 10.1 points and 2.2 blocks per contest.
The big issue for UD has been the turnover battle. They’re giving up the rock on 20.6 percent of their possessions, while their defense isn’t generating many takeaways at all. That’s a strength for Ole Miss, so this game could come down to who can control the basketball.
As for the Rebels, they’re 7-3 on the season and a perfect 6-0 at home. Their big win came over Memphis earlier this month, but they followed it up with a 71-48 loss to Western Kentucky. Their other losses (Marquette and Boise State) aren’t anything to be ashamed of, but that WKU beat-down was definitely unexpected. The ebbs and flows for Ole Miss haven’t been as drastic as Dayton’s, but they’ve been there. A game within the friendly confines of SJB Pavilion this weekend is much needed.
Senior guard Jarkel Joiner has been the absolute go-to for the Rebels this season, as evidenced by his team-best 15.0 points per game. In fact, he’s the only Ole Miss player averaging in double-figures. But much like Dayton, Kermit Davis’ group has tremendous balance. They actually have nine guys with five or more points per game, so the depth matchup is pretty much a wash. In addition to their solid turnover numbers on both sides of the ball, the Rebels have a solid defensive team overall.
They’ve only allowed two teams to eclipse 70 points this season, and they lost both of those games. So that seems to be the magic number. Do they have the personnel to hold down UD’s balanced attack?
Prediction: Ole Miss 67 – Dayton 61