NCAA Basketball: 2021 Diamond Head Classic preview and predictions
BYU
BYU was the No. 12 ranked team in the country just two weeks ago after starting the season 6-0 with a 32-point win over then-No. 12 Oregon and a road win over Utah. Since that win over Utah, they have gone 3-2 with a disappointing loss to Utah Valley and a sub-par performance against Creighton. Oregon has also fallen to 6-6 overall, significantly minimizing the importance of that win.
That said, the Cougars still have multiple quality wins and are led by one of the best guards in the country in Alex Barcello (19.7 PPG, 61.8% eFG). Milwaukee transfer PG Te’Jon Lucas has also been excellent, averaging 11.0 PPG and 5.0 APG on the season.
BYU is heading to Hawaii with a bit of momentum after a nice road win over 9-2 Weber State. Given the result against Utah Valley, this is clearly a team susceptible to upset but also the clear and rightful favorites heading into this event.
Hawaii
The Rainbow Warriors are 4-3 to start the season and will have had two weeks off prior to their opener against Vanderbilt. In fact, they have not played a Division I team since November 30 when they lost to a dangerous Santa Clara team on the road.
Eran Ganot’s team is deep, with nine players averaging at least 14 minutes per game and five players averaging double-digit points per game. Sophomore F Bernardo da Silva leads the team in scoring and rebounding, averaging 15.3 PPG and 8.0 RPG. He has missed the last four games with a hand injury but is expected to return for this event. Sophomore G Noel Coleman is second on the team in scoring at 14.6 PPG but has also battled injuries, although he returned for the team’s December 8 game against Hawaii Pacific.
Hawaii shoots just 30.9% from three on the season but has good size allowing them to convert at the rim in addition to being an excellent rebounding team. The team’s main struggles have come on the other end of the floor, ranking No. 234 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 306 in eFG% defense, per KenPom.
That said, this is a team that has offensive potential and has played the majority of this season without its two leading scorers who will likely both be back for the game against Vanderbilt.
Liberty
Liberty has made the last two NCAA Tournaments and had won the Atlantic Sun Tournament in 2020 before COVID-19 cancelations.
That said, this could be a slightly down year for the Flames. They are currently 7-4 with losses to LSU, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, and Manhattan. Their best wins came against Missouri as well as their last outing against East Carolina. Overall, they are still 2-4 against teams ranked in the top 300 of KenPom.
The player to watch for Liberty is G Darius McGhee who is averaging 19.5 PPG after a 27 point game against East Carolina this past Friday. McGhee is 5-9 but has proven capable of carrying a heavy scoring load for this team, ranking in the top 25 nationally in usage rating.
Liberty is dangerous and has one of the best players in the tournament in McGhee but has yet to show consistency against the better teams on its schedule to start the season.
Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa has been one of the most dissapointing teams in the country to start the season. After being picked to finish third in the Missouri Valley Conference, UNI proceeded to start the season 1-4 against Division I competition. They are now 3-5 with two nice road wins over St. Bonaventure and Marshall but any potential at-large opportunity is in the rear-view mirror.
A central reason for the hype surrounding UNI this offseason was the return of junior G A.J. Green. Although he struggled with his shot to start the season, Green is still averaging 18.7 PPG on the season on 39.5% shooting from deep.
The Panthers have the shooting and star-power to pull off an upset win in Hawaii, but they have yet to show the consistency that would lead me to believe that they can actually win this event.