NBA Draft 2022: Stock risers and fallers from first 2 months of 2021-22

In general, NBA Draft stocks tend to be very fluid. Over the course of a six-month period, a hot or cold stretch can boost or drop a prospect’s stock. Shooting is a skill that we see fluctuate all the time. If someone we thought was a non-shooter is now hitting at a decent rate, that changes their projection. Same with someone we viewed as a knockdown shooter suddenly going cold.

These risers and fallers are a little emblematic of either a hot or cold shooting stretch. But I tried to look past that and focus on their projections when they regress to the mean as a shooter. With that being said, let’s look at some stock risers and fallers from the first month of the season.

Riser – Johnny Davis – Sophomore- Wisconsin – 6’5, 196 lbs – February 2002

Davis went from a minimally used role player as a freshman, to being a role player on the USA U19 team this past summer, to the biggest breakout star of the college basketball season. Davis exploded in the Maui invitational, leading Wisconsin to the title with an absurd three-game run: 24 points (on 47% from the field, 46% from three), 6.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 2.3 steals per game.

Offensively, Davis has thrived as Wisconsin’s initiator. He doesn’t have the best handle, but it’s functional enough with his combination of strength, and change of speed ability to create advantages. Davis reads pick-and-roll scenarios well and has had success creating his own shots off of those. Just a 37% three-point shooter, Davis is probably a better shooter than those numbers suggest. He’s hit 8/14 unguarded jumpers and has shown versatility as a shooter, knocking down 26-47 shots off the dribble.

Davis still has room to grow as a passer, but he has a general understanding of how to make the right read and play. He’s been an excellent finisher with either hand, in large part due to his strength and explosiveness around the rim.

Defensively, Davis has always been good, but he’s been extra impactful this year. He’s a good on-ball defender, using quick feet and length to guard. He projects as someone that can guard both guard spots and small wings at the next level. Off the ball, Davis has been noticeably better, averaging 2.3 steals + blocks per game.

Davis has been one of the most productive non-centers in college basketball this season and has enough tools on both ends to project as at least a role player at the next level. He’s got some potential to be a secondary creator, as well as a three-level scorer. Davis is one of the highest floor prospects in this class and is a front-half of the lottery prospect for me.