This in-state battle between North Carolina and Wake Forest has massive implications for both squads for March Madness. Who will get this needed victory?
TV schedule: Saturday, Jan. 22 – 8:00 PM ET, ACC Network
Arena: LJVM Coliseum – Winston-Salem, N.C.
North Carolina is coming off its worst loss of the season, a 28-point beatdown at the hands of Miami.
The Heels have struggled defensively this season and can trace some of those struggles to their inability to turn other teams over, ranking No. 353 (out of 358) nationally in forced turnover percentage, per KenPom. They also rank towards the bottom of the ACC in turnover percentage. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that it’s difficult to win games in college basketball when you lose the turnover battle on a nightly basis.
That said, there are still legitimate reasons for hope in Chapel Hill. This UNC team shoots 38.1% from deep, their best 3-point shooting team since the 2008-09 season, one that saw them win the national championship. Overall, they rank in the top 25 nationally in offensive efficiency and second in the ACC in effective field goal percentage.
Most importantly, Carolina has Armando Bacot. The 6-10 center is averaging 21.2 points and 14.5 rebounds in ACC play. He has put up eight straight double-doubles and has 13 total on the season, the second-most of any player in the country. Even in the ugly loss to Miami, Bacot had 15 points and 12 boards despite battling foul trouble.
Wake Forest is coming off back-to-back road wins in ACC play, something they have not done since the 2008-09 season. Head Coach Steve Forbes has fast-tracked the Deacs rebuilding process, putting them on the map as an NCAA Tournament quality team in just his second season—a season in which they were picked to finish twelfth in the ACC.
A large reason behind their success has been the effectiveness of their transfers. Alondes Williams is a graduate transfer from Oklahoma who has been sensational in his final season of collegiate play. He is averaging 20.3 points and 6.8 rebounds on the season and is quite possibly the favorite to win ACC Player of the Year up to this point. The 6-5 guard is also a phenomenal passer, averaging 5.2 assists per game, an attribute that will help him earn significant attention from NBA scouts.
The Demon Deacons rank first in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Despite some 3-point shooting woes, they have been able to rely on their physicality and a consistent defensive mindset. Colorado transfer Dallas Walton has been a key to their defensive efforts as one of the best shot blockers in the ACC.
A statistic that jumps out for this matchup comes with relation to the turnover battle. Wake Forest ranks dead last in the ACC in turnover percentage, something that makes them potentially vulnerable offensively. As mentioned above, UNC ranks in the bottom 10 in the country in forced turnover percentage. Wake Forest, like all teams, has weaknesses, but Carolina might not be the team best equipped to take advantage of them.
Wake Forest is also 10-1 at The Joel this season, one of the most underrated home court environments in the country.
The Demon Deacons are the better defensive team and are playing at home, two key factors that make it incredibly difficult to pick against them in this game.