The Northwestern Wildcats are always a threat to pull an upset. Can the reeling Purdue Boilermakers hold them off?
TV Schedule: Sunday, January 23, 1:00 pm ET on BTN
Arena: Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana
The Purdue Boilermakers are one of the best teams in the country. Their hopes of grabbing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament are dwindling, though, after the team picked up its third loss in Big Ten play on Thursday.
If there’s a calling card for all of Purdue’s losses, they’re all very tight. Thursday’s loss against Indiana was by three points. The team also lost to Wisconsin by five points and to Rutgers on one of the most dramatic buzzer-beaters in recent memory. In other words, this team isn’t getting blown out or having any real clunkers.
The Northwestern Wildcats also haven’t had many clunkers, but they’ve often ended up on the losing side of the equation. The team is 2-5 in Big Ten play, but none of the seven games have been decided by more than eight points.
Of course, one of those two victories was a road win over Michigan State, arguably the class of the conference. Northwestern is capable of beating any team on any given day if they play up to their experience level.
These are two teams at a different level of talent, though. On Purdue’s best days, they’re a national title contender. On their worst days, they’re still about as good as Northwestern.
Northwestern is bound to have a tough time slowing down the Boilermakers, as most teams do. Northwestern is allowing a respectable 68 points per game, but Purdue is average 85 points per game, good for fifth in the entire country. They always have another player to turn to when in need.
For Northwestern to pull the upset, they’ll also have to work on keeping the Boilermakers off the boards. Purdue is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, grabbing 41 per game. The Wildcats struggle to keep teams off the boards, with teams averaging 36.3 rebounds per game against them.
They’ll also need to figure out how to limit Purdue’s potent three-point attack. It’s no secret the Boilermakers are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, hitting a clean 40 percent of their attempts from distance. Northwestern is average at defending the three, holding opponents to a 35.1 percent average from distance.
For Purdue to tackle the threat of Northwestern, they’ll have to close off the Wildcats’ passing lanes. The team is one of the best in the country in assists, averaging 18.2 per game.
You’d have to go all the way back to 2014 to find the last time Northwestern was able to slay Purdue. It’s been almost eight years since the Wildcats were able to get the upper hand.
These Wildcats are feisty and they still have ambitions of playing in the postseason, whether that be the NCAA Tournament or more realistically, the NIT. But on the road in West Lafayette against a rowdy group of fans, Northwestern doesn’t have a strong shot.
Prediction: Purdue 80, Northwestern 65