One of the weekend’s most critical mid-major games comes on Friday night, when Colorado State hosts San Diego State.
TV Schedule: Friday, February 4, 9:00 pm ET on FS1
Arena: Moby Arena in Fort Collins, Colorado
The Mountain West Conference appears poised to be one of the most critical mid-major components to this year’s NCAA Tournament bubble. The Colorado State Rams and San Diego State Aztecs are both in the picture.
Colorado State should be feeling a little bit safer at the moment, projected by many to either be a 9- or 10-seed come next month. San Diego State should be more nervous, squarely on the bubble. Either way, this would be a big win for either team.
The Rams have only lost three times all season, although all of the defeats have come in conference play. Colorado State is actually riding a two-game losing streak entering this game, with a rough 14-point home loss to UNLV and a more respectable eight-point loss at Wyoming.
Colorado State goes where junior forward David Roddy takes them. He was named to the Wooden Award’s midseason list. He’s averaging 18.6 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, hitting an absurd 48.2 percent of his three-pointers.
The Rams seem to be the better team on paper, but the Aztecs are no slouches. The team is one spot behind Colorado State in the Mountain West standings, sporting a 12-5 overall record and a 4-2 record in conference play.
Surprisingly, the Aztecs are one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, averaging just 64.6 points per game. In all five of the team’s losses, the team was held to 60 points or less. In one particularly glaring example, Boise State held the team to just 37 points (although the Broncos only scored 42 themselves).
Matt Bradley is the straw that stirs San Diego State’s drink. The senior is averaging 16 points per game and is the only Aztec averaging double-digit scoring numbers.
It’s worth noting these two teams have already played once this season and it was a massive blowout, favoring San Diego State. The Aztecs whipped the Rams, 79-49, on January 8. Colorado State has been waiting a month to exact its revenge for its first and most embarrassing loss of the season.
There were a few notable disparities in that game, which included San Diego State outscoring Colorado State by 26 points in the second half. San Diego State hit more than 47 percent of its threes, while Colorado State hit just 15 percent. That likely won’t repeat, as the Rams hit 37.9 percent from deep, while the Aztecs average 33.4 percent from three.
San Diego State also dominated the boards, almost doubling up Colorado State by a 38-21 margin. The Aztecs also nearly tripled the Rams’ assists total, 14-5.
Changing courts should also be a major boost for Colorado State as it looks to avenge its loss. The team has only lost once on its home court all season. The Rams will be interested in defending their turf and locking up NCAA Tournament status.
Colorado State was limited by San Diego State last time around, but it was an aberration, both for Colorado State’s offense and San Diego State’s defense. It won’t happen again.
Prediction: Colorado State 75, San Diego State 66