Bracketology Bubble Watch: Could WCC get more bids than the ACC?
By Bryan Mauro
Big East
Locks
Providence Friars
They described Providence as lucky this year. I would describe them as good. They are one of the best teams in the country and are currently on pace to run away and hide in the Big East. The Friars sit at 19-2 and have five quad one wins. The NET Is in the top 30 but it is only going to go up the more games Providence wins.
As everyone has seen the NET can be manipulated by the margin of victory and the Friars play grind it out close games but they win them, and they are in line for a top 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. They won’t get a 1 seed but they will get a high seed and can’t do anything to not see themselves in the NCAA tournament at this point.
Villanova Wildcats
Was there ever any doubt that Villanova wouldn’t make the tournament? The Wildcats are not a National Title threat this year, but they are a threat to make the second weekend. Villanova has four quad 1 wins, they have a top 10 NET and they are always a threat. The Wildcats have yet to win their signature game and they have had opportunities, even though that doesn’t matter as much when it comes to their status in the tournament.
If they were able to get a signature win against Providence at this point, it would give Wildcat fans a lot more confidence heading into the tournament. Villanova is getting in the tournament this year regardless of what happens the rest of the way.
Marquette Golden Eagles
Year one for head coach Shaka Smart has been a rousing success. Marquette is a lock for the tournament at this point. They have seven quad 1 wins have beaten Providence once and Villanova twice, and Illinois. The Golden Eagles have zero bad losses and have a NET in the top 25.
Marquette does have a quad 3 loss against Saint Bonaventure but keep in mind when that loss happened it was not a quad 3 loss. Marquette doesn’t need to worry about the Saint Bonaventure loss, they have enough quality wins and a high enough NET that they are going to be seeded well enough to sit comfortably on Selection Sunday.
Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies have taken care of the business they have needed to take care of this season. They have beaten everyone they are supposed to and do not currently have a loss in the Quad 3 or 4 tier. UConn also has the best win of anyone in the country this year as they are the only team to defeat Auburn.
They beat Auburn in double overtime back in Atlantis and when the game happened no one knew that Auburn would go on to be the number 1 team in the country. The NET for the Huskies is in the top 20 and they have two quad 1 wins. The other coming against Marquette. UConn is in lock status.
Xavier Musketeers
The Big East is a strong conference this year as evidenced by their five teams that are going to get into the tournament. Xavier was a team who many predicted to be in this position. The Musketeers have all their losses coming the quad 1 tier and they have four quad 1 wins of their own. Xavier is going to be a higher-seeded team come March.
The NET is in the 20’s and they have one of the strongest schedules in the country. Like every other team in the lock status, there is not much that Xavier can do to miss a chance in the NCAA tournament.
On the Bubble
Seton Hall Pirates
A month ago, the Pirates were a lock, but it turns out they were not as good as we all initially thought. If the committee were to select teams today Seton Hall would likely be in, but they have been losing some games that they needed to win. The three quad 1 wins include UConn, Michigan, and Texas. Seton Hall has the loss to DePaul and Saint John’s on the resume. The loss to DePaul is one that no other team in contention for the NCAA tournament has.
I trust Kevin Willard to get his team playing well enough to stay on the bubble, but the bad losses may end up being the end of the Pirates this year. The NET ranking is still in the high 40’s so they are on the right side of the bubble now.
Work to Do
Creighton Bluejays
Creighton has an extremely young team, without a ton of experience so the fact that they are even this close to the bubble is a testament to how good of a coach Greg McDermott is. The Bluejays do have a win over Villanova, Marquette, and UConn and those are great wins. They did also beat fellow bubble team BYU.
The four quad wins are going to reflect positively for Creighton going forward but the NET ranking and other metrics are not favoring Creighton right now. The Bluejays do have some landmines still on the schedule with Depaul once and Georgetown twice. Lose any of those games and it could be lights out for Creighton.