Bracketology Bubble Watch: Could WCC get more bids than the ACC?

Mountain West

Locks

Boise State Broncos

The Mountain West is likely going to get three teams in the tournament this year and all of them are teams who can do significant damage in the tournament. Right now, Boise State is the only team that is likely guaranteed a spot in the tournament, even if they lose in the conference tournament. The Broncos have four quad 1 wins and all are within the league. The five quad 1 games they have played are also all within the league and that says something about the overall strength of this league this year.

Boise State currently has a NET in the 30’s and they still have three more quad 1 games left. If they get to 5 or 6 quad 1 wins they are locked. I will leave them in the lock status for right now but if they falter at all with the landmine games they have coming up it could all end.

On the Bubble

Wyoming Cowboys

The two Mountain West bubble teams are likely going to be in the tournament it’s just an issue of semantics right now. Head coach Jeff Linder has taken a program that was a bottom-of-the-barrel Mountain West team and built them up to a power in the conference, at least for this year. Wyoming has a NET in the 30’s and they have two great wins over Colorado State and Boise State.

The reason they are a bubble team has to do with the fact they have only played three quad 1 games overall. As the season rolls on that will obviously change as they have a few more opportunities. The Cowboys are very close to being a lock but cannot afford a letdown right now.

Colorado State Rams

Two weeks ago, the Rams were the team that everyone had pegged as the sure-fire team to make it to the NCAA tournament from the Mountain West. In those two weeks, Colorado State has lost some games that many thought they would win. The Rams now look beatable and are firmly on the bubble. The Rams will still find their way into the field as they do have quad 1 wins against teams who are going to be considered for the field.

It would help the Rams immensely if they could get a win against Wyoming and Boise State as the regular season closes. I still believe they are the most complete team in the league they just are not playing as well right now. The NET is in the 40’s with three quad 1 games left.

Work to Do

San Diego State Aztecs

San Diego State has been the power program in the Mountain West for a long time. It all started with Steve Fisher and then continued with Brian Dutcher. This year they were a team that many had pegged to compete near the top of the conference with Colorado State and easily find their way into the tournament. They still may find their way into the tournament, but they have not played as well as everyone thought, and they are currently on the outside looking in if the field were announced today.

The NET is currently in the low 40’s and the Aztecs only have one quad 1 win over Saint Mary’s on the resume and a 30-point blowout of Colorado State a few weeks ago. San Diego State is going to have to find a way to beat Boise State, Wyoming, and Colorado State again and avoid a bad loss, and even then, it may not be enough.

Fresno State Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are on life support at this point and they still do have an outside shot at the tournament but they are going to have to show they can beat the best teams in this conference if they hope for that to happen. Fresno State was a trendy pick to make the tournament this year especially considering they have one of the five best big men in the country in Orlando Robinson.

The Bulldogs just have not won enough games against the teams that matter. They have only played two quad 1 games and lost them both, and they do have two quad 3 losses, which is not good on the bubble. The NET also drastically needs to improve as it is in the low 50’s and it really needs to be in the mid-40’s for an at large. Fresno State likely doesn’t make the tournament.