Bracketology Bubble Watch: Could WCC get more bids than the ACC?
By Bryan Mauro
Pac 12
Locks
Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats are back, and they are going to be in the NCAA tournament and they have a team who can win a National Championship. All it took was a new coach to motivate the players that he had. When the Wildcats are good, the Pac 12 is much better and college basketball is much better.
Arizona has a top 3 NET, and their only losses have come in the quad 1 tier. They also have two wins in the quad 1 tier against UCLA and Illinois. Their only losses came to Tennessee and UCLA, both of those away from Tempe. Arizona is in a fight for the 1 seed line and they are likely going to make a deep run in the tournament.
UCLA Bruins
Last year UCLA got hot in February and found their way into the NCAA tournament. Then they went on to make the Final Four before losing to Gonzaga in what was a top 5 college basketball game of all time, UCLA returned their whole team and they are back to being a national power now. As I said before Arizona and UCLA being the class of the Pac 12 makes the sport a lot better.
The Bruins have three quad 3 wins and they are against Arizona, Villanova, and Marquette. The NET is in the top 15 and UCLA is likely going to be a top seed in the tournament. UCLA is safe no matter what happens the rest of the way.
USC Trojans
The Trojans were one of the last undefeated teams in the country, and while they are a lock to make the tournament they still give me an uneasy feeling as I don’t know how good they are. USC is 2-0 in their quad 1 games and those were early on against San Diego State and at Washington State. They have yet to play Arizona or UCLA, although those are their next two games.
The Trojans have a NET in the middle ’20s but don’t have any great wins yet. There is a chance they get those wins before the year ends which will improve their seeding. Trojan fans can rest easy on Selection Sunday but they are playing for seeding right now.
On the Bubble
Oregon Ducks
The margin of error for the Ducks is very small right now but everyone knows that Dana Altman is going to either win the tournament or win enough games down the stretch to solidify their resume. Oregon was one of the teams that many picked to win the league but they have had a disappointing year to this point, at least by Oregon’s standards.
The Ducks do have some good wins this year. They did beat UCLA and USC in back-to-back games but other than that the resume isn’t great. The Ducks are going to need a lot of help as they have a NET currently in the mid 50’s and those are the only two quad 1 wins they have on the resume and the Ducks have had tons of opportunities to gain more. Oregon is firmly on the bubble right now and won’t get off. They are going to be watching intently on Selection Sunday.
Stanford Cardinal
The Cardinal has a very interesting resume. They have played the most quad 1 and 2 games of anyone in the league and they have the most quad 1 wins of anyone in the league. The NET and the other metrics do not like them and one wonders if the quad wins and the strength of schedule leads to Stanford being included in the field come Selection Sunday.
The Cardinal have beaten USC twice, Washington State, Wyoming, and Oregon. They do have a loss to Washington, Colorado, and Santa Clara which are all quad 2 losses. The lack of quad 3 and 4 losses should help Stanford get into the tournament. They are a firm bubble team right now, even despite a NET in the mid 90’s.
Work to Do
Washington State Cougars
Yes, that Washington State, the very same team that was the bottom feeder, they are firmly in position to grab a tournament bid if they can get back up to speed and avoid a letdown. The Cougars are finally back after a Covid 19 pause. Washington State has a very back-loaded schedule and is going to have a big chance to improve on that resume.
They are currently 0-2 in the quad 1 tier and they do have a quad 4 loss which could ultimately lead to their omission from the bracket. The NET is good in the mid 30’s but if Washington State wants to find themselves on the right side of the bubble they are going to beat a top team in the league.