BYU Basketball: 3 keys to pulling off major upset against No. 2 Gonzaga
By Tuck Clarry
BYU Basketball finds itself in an unenviable place headed into their matchup against #2 Gonzaga on Saturday night. They’re coming off of a three-game losing streak against San Francisco and two mid-level conference opponents in Santa Clara and Pacific. The game doesn’t quite reach a “must-win” status for Mark Pope’s team but it certainly would alleviate a lot of the grimaces and upset stomachs found in the Mariott Center.
An upset of Gonzaga is not impossible, KenPom gives BYU a 19% shot of beating the Zags on their home floor. The Zags have shown a blueprint in their two losses this season on how they can be slowed down and forced into tough spots. And BYU did hang with the Zags for the first 10 minutes of their previous game.
If you’re gonna gamble, GAMBLE
In the last matchup, Pope decided to try and match the tempo of the Zags, the second-highest tempo team in the country, to try and withstand the size discrepancy they faced in the frontcourt. That only resulted in giving the offense with the second-highest point per possession in the country more opportunities to fill the hoop.
Playing defense against Gonzaga is a bit of a “picking your poison” thought exercise, so it’s hard to begrudge any concerted effort made on the defensive end. But to gamble against this team, you may need to fully invest. BYU is not a havoc-causing defensive team, though they do rank 33rd in adjusted defense. They play good defense but rank in the bottom quarter in the country when it comes to causing turnovers and especially producing steals.
Giving Andrew Nembhard space to operate is a death knell to having a productive defensive set against Gonzaga. Duke and Alabama made it a point to pick up Nembhard as early as possible in a possession, challenging him at halfcourt and daring him to make tough decisions. It resulted in completely throwing the Zags off of their game, making one of the most dominant frontcourts in the country offensively completely flummoxed.
Despite losing two of their major front-court contributors, BYU has quite a bit of length at the wing and power forward position they could leverage to guard aggressively and try to disrupt passing lanes. Especially after a month where the Zags averaged 102 points and seemed to get whatever they wanted, forcing them to work on offense could perhaps throw them out of sorts.