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SEC Basketball: Buy or sell LSU, Auburn, Arkansas and Alabama?

By Trevor Sinodhinos

Nov 12, 2021; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers forward Jabari Smith (10) attempts a 3 point shot during the second half against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at Auburn Arena. Smith led all scorers with 23 points. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 12, 2021; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers forward Jabari Smith (10) attempts a 3 point shot during the second half against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at Auburn Arena. Smith led all scorers with 23 points. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports /
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NCAA Basketball JD Notae Arkansas Razorbacks (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
NCAA Basketball JD Notae Arkansas Razorbacks (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) /

Arkansas: Buy – Averaging down

Arkansas’ victories over Auburn and LSU were not enough to get the Selection Committee to reveal the Razorbacks as one of the top 16 teams, but their ten-point victory over Tennessee hours after the reveal has placed them No. 18 in the Busting brackets Power Rankings and No. 23 in the NET.

As a current projected five seed, the Razorbacks would need a victory in the second round versus a team the caliber of Duke, Illinois, or Connecticut to advance to the Sweet Sixteen and surpass their current market value.

The move is to buy the Razorbacks, but, wait for the regular season to end, because they will fall before the conference tournament.  The Razorbacks will end the season with losses to Kentucky and Tennessee and in between, they could get a victory over LSU at home that would secure them a No. 4 seed in the SEC tournament and an eventual semi-final match-up with Auburn.

Coach Musselman’s offense hinges on point guard JD Notae‘s ability to get to the basket. Notae is averaging nearly 19 points per game and a major contributor to the Razorbacks averaging the seventh most three-throw attempts in the nation. Along with free throws the Razorbacks rank among the top 100 teams in blocks, steals, assists, rebounds, with their field goal percentage being among the top200. Their largest obstacle is they are barely among the top 300 in three-point shooting.

Fortunately, the Razorbacks attempt fewer than 21 three-pointers per game which is to be expected as Coach Musselman starts 6’6 Au’Diese Toney in the backcourt and fellow 6’6 teammates Trey Wade and Stanley Umude in the frontcourt. This big backcourt is a contrast in style as to how many games down the stretch finish for the Razorbacks as Chris Lykes and JD Notae play alongside.

Switching to two point-guards enables the backcourt to beat their defenders and create scoring opportunities to get points in the paint. The ability to get to the paint was demonstrated with 32 versus Mississippi State, 28 versus Auburn, and 38 versus Florida that all ended in victories. It will also be the formula that gets the Razorbacks to at least the Sweet Sixteen.

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