Opening Round
8. LMU over 9. Pacific
7. San Diego over 10. Pepperdine
The gap between the near bottom and the cellar of the conference is stark enough that chalk is a reasonable assumption in this round. Though the Lions of Loyola has had a season to forget, Pacific isn’t exactly offering a whole lot to believe that baseline talent won’t prevail here. San Diego has been sneakily decent as a mid-level team this season and Pepperdine is dealing with a host of injuries as they wrap up their season.
Second Round
5. BYU over 8. LMU
6. Portland over 7. San Diego
The gap between BYU and LMU is massive and shows the top-heavy nature of the five best teams in the conference. As the Cougars cratered with four straight conference losses, it took overtime for them to beat the Lions by one point. But Pope’s team has tightened up over the last couple of weeks and a 20 point victory at home against LMU showed that just maybe the Cougars figured some things out.
The Pilots’ six-game winning streak ended in their season finale against Santa Clara, but it’s hard not to envision Legans’ team getting a postseason win with an added day of rest. The Pilots split their series with the Toreros this season, but their later 32 point home victory is too decisive to ignore.
Quarterfinals
4. San Francisco over 5. BYU
This is where things heat up in Vegas. I waffled between these two hungry and desperate teams hoping to survive and advance to the next tournament. The advantage of the Dons resting while BYU will have played a game the night before makes the edge too big to not pick the Dons. Khalil Shabazz breaking his nose last Thursday against Gonzaga remains a storyline, but he played relatively well against San Deigo.
The Dons have not just a better offense and defense but steadier ball control as they have a 4.5% lower turnover rate (15.7%) to BYU (19.2%) and have the second-highest forced turnover rate on defense to BYU’s tenth-ranked turnover defense. The Dons winning this game would almost guarantee they’ll be dancing for the first time in 24 years.
3. Santa Clara over 6. Portland
What a reward for the spectacular coaching season for Herb Sendek. The difference between KenPom’s 298th ranked Portland and 49th BYU is as stark as you can imagine. The Pilots will try their best to grind out a tough game and muck things up as best as they can but the advantage in the frontcourt with Vrankic will undoubtedly be too much for the upstart Pilots as he scored 30 points against them on Saturday.
Broncos supporters should hope for decisive victory as a team clicking at the right time and testing their stars is massive in a survive and advance tournament. Having a rest day makes their potential to challenge the Gaels all the more plausible.