North Carolina at Duke: 2021-22 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

Analysis/Prediction

Duke has gone even bigger than normal over the last five games with Wendell Moore Jr. starting at point guard and Trevor Keels starting at shooting guard with AJ Griffin, Paolo Banchero, and Mark Williams rounding out the starting five. That gives the Blue Devils a starting lineup that’s 6-5, 6-4, 6-7, 6-10, and 7-0.

Moore isn’t necessarily a traditional point guard, but he does rank third in the ACC in assists per game with that number rising since he took over sole PG duties. Defensively, Moore and Keels have handled opposing backcourts well with their speed, versatility, and physicality. At the end of the day, a more traditional point guard in Jeremy Roach is usually the first man off the bench giving Duke plenty of options in the backcourt.

Paolo Banchero is an All-American quality player and a projected top-three pick in this year’s NBA Draft. He’s currently averaging 16.9 points and 7.8 rebounds and is capable of scoring from all three levels, although he’s at his best in the low-post. Duke has struggled to get him the ball on the block at times this season but when they do he’s almost impossible to stop one-on-one.

Carolina’s attack is centered around Armando Bacot and for good reason. The 6-10 junior has 23 double-doubles on the season — the third-most in the nation and more than twice as many as any other player in the ACC.

The Heels’ most glaring issue aside from inconsistency on the defensive end is their lack of depth. After losing Dawson Garcia and Anthony Harris earlier in the season, they essentially have a six-man rotation. With Duke’s physicality, foul trouble becomes an issue, which we saw come into play with Bacot in their first meeting.

North Carolina’s path to victory on Saturday is narrow, but if they can stay out of foul trouble, crash the offensive glass, and get hot from the 3-point line then an upset to ruin Coach K’s farewell in Durham could be in store.

Another focus for the Heels should be their 3-point defense, which currently ranks No. 238 nationally, per KenPom. Duke is an excellent 3-point shooting team that shot 47.4% from deep in the team’s first meeting. UNC is also an excellent 3-point shooting team but Duke has the best 3-point defense in the ACC, per KenPom, due to their high ball pressure on the perimeter. Duke is going to run Carolina off the 3-point line — I’d suggest the Heels do the same in return.

The circumstances just seem too perfect for Duke. For starters, every single former player was offered a ticket to Saturday’s game. It’s difficult to see this going sideways with Krzyzewski’s final game in Cameron Indoor with a host of his former players in the crowd, not to mention having the No. 4 team in the nation.