Big 12 Basketball: 2022 Conference Tournament preview and predictions
By Tuck Clarry
First-Round
No. 8 Kansas State vs. No. 9 West Virginia
From a distance, Bill Weber’s team had an up-and-down season finishing with a 14-16 record, but outside of some ugly losses to the top dogs Baylor and Kansas the Wildcats played relatively close in all of their other losses. They split their series with the Mountaineers this season. Nijel Pack has been the key to their wins, as he’s averaging 17.4 points per game with an effective field goal percentage of 58.1%. If he’s able to get hot, the Wildcats could play a couple of rounds of the tournament.
Bob Huggins’ West Virginia team is not having a season fitting of his standards. The Mountaineers are having their worst season in three years. Outside of rim protection from Jalen Bridges and Isaiah Cottrell the Mountaineers do not have much to write home about. West Virginia finished last in adjusted defensive metrics in KenPom and their offense ended up at seventh. It seems like if Kansas State is able to get Pack quality looks they’ll come out on top.
Prediction: Kansas State 76, West Virginia 70
Second-Round
No. 4 Texas vs. No. 5 TCU
Can TCU find a way to get an upset here or is the gap between the top four and bottom five of the conference that great? TCU’s shown the ability to hang in games and win against the best of the conference, but these wins were also at home. A neutral environment may still be a doable venue for the upset but a lot will need to go right.
It seems also like the Longhorns have turned a corner in terms of playing as a collective team. Despite the losses to Texas Tech, Baylor and Kansas Beard’s team has avoided dropping games to teams they are expected to beat.
The Horned Frogs need to hope for an off night from Allen if they have any hopes to advancing considering he’s carved them up in the two games they’ve played. The game will be closer than some would expect considering TCU’s 9 and 23 point losses earlier in the season but expect Texas to be tested early.
Prediction: Texas 65, TCU 63
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 6 Iowa State
The Cyclones split the series with the Red Raiders this year, albeit at home and when Tech was in the throws of figuring out their rotation still. Iowa State will need to add scoring alongside Brockington if they want to crack Adams’ No-Middle style of play. Senior transfer Aljaz Kunc was able to be that spark in their first game, scoring 13 points in the upset (seven of those points coming at the free-throw line).
But it seems unlikely that Texas Tech won’t be extra motivated to get back into the swing of things after a surprising one-point loss to Oklahoma State to close out their season. The Cyclones have shot abysmally from outside their last two games going 9 for 42. While Otzelberger’s team has done a terrific job on defense, they’ve been equally unimpressive on offense.
Prediction: Texas Tech 66, Iowa State 54
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 7 Oklahoma
Porter Moser’s Sooners have had a sneaky good close to their regular season, winning three straight against Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Kansas State. The team has a stable of solid offensive contributors in Jordan Goldwire, Tanner Groves, and Umoja Gibson. But the Sooners are also considerably banged up.
Major contributor Elijah Harkless is done for the season, removing a guy who was averaging 10 points and four rebounds a contest. Marvin Johnson has injected himself at times in the handful of games he’s played in and may help cushion the loss of Harkless.
But Baylor seems to be a team on a mission. Akinjo and Flagler are playing some of the best basketball we’ve seen from them in tandem to close out the season. Brown contributed significantly on offense in the final two games of the season averaging 14.5 points against the 10th and 12th ranked defenses against KenPom. If Baylor has found their offensive groove, it’s hard to see many teams sticking with them.
Prediction: Baylor 75, Oklahoma 62
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 8 Kansas State
The state rivalry gets a third matchup once the Wildcats clear their first hurdle in the first round, but it’s tough to envision them stealing their first win in this season’s series. The initial game was close in Kansas State’s Octagon of Doom thanks in large part to Pack going inferno hot and scoring 35 points and making 8 threes on 12 attempts. Self’s team made a concerted effort to limit him in the second game and they won by 19.
Jayhawks forward Jalen Wilson has figured some things out in three of the last five contests, averaging 12.6 points and 51% shooting from the field. If he can be dependable secondary scoring for Agbaji and Braun the team from Lawrence can reach their potential as a Final Four team.
Prediction: Kansas 84, Kansas State 70