Pac-12 Basketball: 2022 Conference Tournament preview and predictions
By Tuck Clarry
First-round
No. 8 Arizona State vs. No. 9 Stanford
This will be the test to see if Arizona State really has the potential to string a couple of games together in Sin City. These two teams split their two games this season, winning on their respective homecourts. There may be no more inconsistent team in this conference than the Cardinal and that is truly saying something.
Stanford should have been a lot better than they’ve been. Jaiden Delaire has mostly replicated his junior season that earned him Pac-12 Most Improved Player. Harrison Ingram has been by far the most impressive freshman in the conference and a likely first-round selection in the draft should he choose to go pro. The junior shooting guard continues to be an effective shooter. But they just simply can’t protect the basketball. They have the 351st ranked turnover rate in all of college basketball this season, and it’s largely by their own error rather than facing a suffocating defense.
The Sun Devils’ defense is the third-best in the conference and should help Stanford continue their difficulties taking care of the ball. With rim protection and good perimeter defense, expect Arizona State to replicate the close to the season where they beat Stanford by 9 points.
Prediction: Arizona State 67, Stanford 60
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Oregon State
The comedown for a tournament team has been no greater anywhere more so than these two teams that played the second week of the tournament. And this was before the news that leading scorer and a sole bright spot for the Ducks Will Richardson would miss the conference tournament with a non-Covid illness.
The Ducks should still be able to take care of business against the Beavers even without their leading scorer considering the dismal season Wayne Tinkle’s team has had in Corvallis. Senior point guard will need to look to score in Richardson’s absence and he’s proven to be capable. He scored 16 and 17 points in the two previous games against the Beavers. Oregon State’s defense has plummeted since last season. They’re near the bottom of the country in 2-point field goal percentage, effective field goal percentage and most notably owning the glass on defense.
Prediction: Oregon 73, Oregon State 66
No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Cal
It’s been a frustrating year for the Cougars as they’ve flirted with turning a corner several times this season. The offense for Smith’s team has been absent nearly all season. They rank 309th in the country in 2-point shooting percentage and 131st behind the arc. Promising wing Noah Williams was unable to take the next step as a scorer and reverted to an effective field goal percentage of 38%.
The Golden Bears’ offense is nothing to write home about either. Head coach Mark Fox struggled to find scoring on his roster and losing senior and leading scorer Andre Kelly only exacerbated that struggle. Cal has won four games this calendar year and has lost 14.
Prediction: Washington State 66, Cal 58
No. 6 Washington vs. No. 11 Utah
Give Washington’s head coach Mike Hopkins just a little bit of credit. The Boeheim disciple has adapted this year in a way many had not expected considering the futility of his tenure and their stumbles out of the gate in nonconference play. He’s practically given up on installing Syracuse’s patented 2-3 zone defense and has tried to operate around his personnel’s strengths. As discussed earlier, their point guard Brown is a special scorer that could keep the Huskies in games that they really don’t belong in.
Craig Smith’s first season at the helm of Utah hasn’t been inspiring but the roster overturn cannot be ignored. Big man Branden Carlson has been a bright spot for the team but has been up and down since returning from an ankle injury that held him out of five games in the heart of conference play. This game will likely go back and forth and be decided in the final two minutes.
Prediction: Washington 74, Utah 69