Purdue vs. Michigan State: 2022 Big Ten Tournament preview, TV schedule

The No. 9 Purdue Boilermakers run into a streaking Michigan State Spartans team with a Big Ten Championship Game berth on the line. Who comes out on top?

TV schedule: Saturday, March 12, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

Arena: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana

The 2022 Big Ten Tournament has provided plenty of surprises. One of those is certainly the Michigan State Spartans (22-11, 11-9 B1G). Tom Izzo and Co. finished the regular season seventh place in the conference standings with plenty of lackluster performances. MSU entered the Big Ten postseason having lost seven of their last ten games and looking like an early exit.

Well, the Big Ten semifinals are set and the Spartans are still alive. Michigan State defeated the Maryland Terrapins 76-72 in their first tournament game despite squandering a 20-point second-half lead and doing everything they could to give the game away. Sparty followed that up with a win over a hobbled Johnny Davis and the Wisconsin Badgers, 69-63. Marcus Bingham led the way with 19 points and 11 rebounds.

A major criticism of MSU’s roster has been that they lack a true star who can give consistent performances. Over their three-game win streak, a different player has led the Spartans in scoring each time. It remains to be seen if their committee approach can continue to produce wins, because it sure did not pan out for most of the season.

Purdue (26-6, 14-6 B1G) has taken a very different path to the semifinals. The Boilermakers were one of the conference favorites to open the year, and never wavered from their status among the Big Ten elites despite taking a few losses across conference play. They secured the double-bye for the conference tournament and defeated an upstart Penn State team, 69-61. Star guard Jaden Ivey scored 17 points and added seven boards.

A reoccurring concern for Purdue is the disparity between their offensive output and defensive performances. They currently rank No. 2 on KenPom in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, but No. 101 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is perplexing for a squad that brought almost everyone back from a top-30 defensive unit. The worry is that their defense is not enough to pull out games where the offense isn’t clicking. Purdue is 23-0 this season when scoring at least 70 points, and 3-6 when they fail to reach that threshold.

Michigan State won the lone meeting between these two sides in East Lansing, 68-65. Tyson Walker hit a game-winning three with four seconds left. The difference in this game was three-point shooting and ball security. Purdue shot a higher percentage from the field and won the rebounding battle by a significant margin, but they only converted one of nine attempts from deep and turned the ball over 17 times to MSU’s 10.

Entering this matchup, the Boilermakers should hold a significant advantage in the frontcourt with Zach Edey and Trevion Williams going up against Gabe Brown and Malik Hall. The Spartans will be forced to turn to their guard play, which has been inconsistent at best throughout the season. As long as Matt Painter’s squad can take care of the ball in this one, the superior talent on their roster should win out.

Purdue’s Jaden Ivey has scored at least 15 points in 12 of his last 15 games – look for him to provide a major scoring punch in a revenge game. Although the Boilermakers came up short in their last meeting with Michigan State, expect a different result this time.

Prediction: Purdue 70, Michigan State 63