NCAA Basketball: 3 upset picks in 1st round of 2022 NCAA Tournament

We’re finally here. After an intoxicating college basketball regular season, we’ve got our NCAA Basketball bracket and we’re on to March Madness. Those of us who have logged hundreds of games this season, it’s certainly bittersweet. Before I tout a few under-the-radar upsets I’ll be selecting in my bracket, here are some quick reminders about when you’re filling out your bracket at home.

There is an average of six double-digit seeds that make it past the Round of 64 and two double-digit seeds that make it to the Sweet 16. We can be fairly certain that there will be somewhere between 4-8 double-digit upsets in round one. Picking more than that and you’re anticipating an all-time high in upsets (not advised). Picking lower than that and you are discounting the ‘Madness’ portion of March Madness.

Now, which one’s to pick? below are the percentages that each seed line upsets the favorite:

10 over a 7:   39.5%

11 over a 6:   37.5%

12 over a 5:   35.4%

13 over a 4:   21.5%

14 over a 3:   15.3%

15 over a 2:   6.3%

16 over a 1:   0.7%

So, there you have it. With those percentages you need to concoct an appealing 5-7 team mixture that gets you to bracket nirvana. In this article, I’ll go into detail on three teams that aren’t necessarily going to be the most trendy upset picks– but will be the ones you wished you’d picked in a few days time.

There is a lot of literature out there on what makes for a great Cinderella run. It is widely accepted that good, experienced guard play is a must-have. Second, the ability to get hot from deep and shoot the ball at a high clip is paramount. With these lower mid-major teams having a net sum of less talent, they need to be able to hit shots to pull off these upsets. Thirdly, they need to be able to rebound the basketball. Along similar lines as shooting, giving the higher seed more opportunities than you concludes in almost certain demise.

On the slides to follow, here are three teams that hit those three parameters and can shock the college basketball world in the first couple rounds of the NCAA Tournament.