2022 NCAA Tournament: Kansas, Auburn headline Midwest Region
Teams to watch in the Midwest Region
Favorite: Kansas
For the ninth time in his 19 years in Lawrence, Bill Self has led the Jayhawks to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Ten times if we count the 2020 NCAA Tournament which was canceled due to COVID-19 but almost certainly would have seen the Jayhawks earn the top overall seed.
Ochai Agbaji was the Big 12 Player of the Year this season, averaging 19.7 PPG and hitting numerous clutch shots down the stretch of big games. Christian Braun also gives the Jayhawks another covetable option on the wing as a nearly 40% 3-point shooter.
The Big 12 was ranked as the most difficult league in the country this season on KenPom. Kansas won both the regular season and tournament titles. This is a team that has a whopping 12 Quadrant 1 wins this season — two more than any other team in the country. They are battle-tested, well-coached, and can win big games in multiple ways. The Jayhawks are the top seed in this region for a reason.
Sleeper: Iowa
Iowa is one of the hottest teams in the country right now coming off of a Big Ten Tournament title.
Keegan Murray has a very strong case to be the National Player of the Year this season, which would be Iowa’s second in a row after Luka Garza was the consensus winner last season.
The caveat with Iowa is that the Hawkeyes have not made it out of the second round of the NCAA Tournament since 1999. Under Fran McCaffrey, the defense has taken most of the blame, and rightly so. If we go back just one season we’ll find Iowa giving up 95 points in a round of 32 loss to Oregon. Their defensive metrics are similar to last year’s, but this team feels like it’s found a way to get stops when it matters, even if they can’t get them consistently.
In the wise words of the Hall of Famer Bill Walton, “Offense wins championships.” The defense just has to get a few key stops, which Iowa has done recently, ranking second in the country on T-Rank since Feb. 1.
With Keegan Murray, all things are possible.
If the slipper fits: South Dakota State
South Dakota State has won 21 straight games heading into a first-round matchup with No. 4 seed Providence. Need I say more?
The Jackrabbits will likely be just a slight underdog on the books when the odds finalize despite being nine seed lines lower than the Friars.
This is a team that leads the nation in 3-point percentage, shooting 44.2% on the season which is 4.1 percentage points higher than the second-best 3-point shooting team in Colgate, who we’ll get to momentarily. For context, South Dakota State is as far ahead of No. 2 as No. 2 is ahead of No. 55.
The Jacks also rank first in the country in effective field goal percentage and twelfth in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. This is not just an elite offensive team at the mid-major level — this is an elite offensive team across all of college basketball.
If the slipper fits: Colgate
South Dakota State might lead the nation in 3-point percentage, but Colgate ranks second, shooting 40.1% from deep on the season.
Matt Langel’s Raiders made the NCAA Tournament last season and gave Arkansas a run for its money in the first half before coming up short to a team that went on to the Elite Eight. There’s no shame in that. This season could see them get over the hump though — that 3-point shooting and offensive firepower is a huge reason why.
In a region largely crowded by defensive-minded teams, Colgate’s potential to get hot from deep poses a serious threat in a tournament format where the game tends to slow down and half-court offense becomes a priority.
The 14-seed over 3-seed upset isn’t nearly as common as say a 12-seed over a 5-seed, but it’s always fun to speculate and this Colgate team could be set up in a decent spot to make history.