NCAA Basketball: Why March cinderellas are becoming more frequent

In the last 15 years, double-digit seeds have had more success

Looking back this run of closing the gap can be seen as bookended by a coach, Jim Larranaga. He started this trend in 2006 when he took George Mason to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed and this past year was able to bring his latest team, the Miami Hurricanes to the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed. In between, it has become quite clear that the gap between the higher and lower seeds is definitely closing.

Beginning in 2006 through this past season there have been 16 tournaments contested and we have seen a total of 11 double-digit seeds reach the Elite Eight and four of those teams went on to participate in the Final Four. That doesn’t even include 2011 when Butler reached the national title game as a No. 8 seed or Wichita State who went from the First Four to the Final Four as a No. 9 in 2013.

To illustrate the point even further than it has been over the last handful of seasons that the trend of double-digit seeds reaching the Elite Eight or beyond has really taken off, eight of the eleven occurrences in the last 16 tournaments have happened since the 2013-14 season.

To contrast, in the 16 years prior to George Mason in 2006, a total of eight double-digit seeds made the Elite Eight from 1990-2005. None of those eight teams went on to the Final Four and while their margin of defeat in those games was just 8.7 and of the last eight teams to equal that feat those that lost did so by over 17 points per game, three other teams went on to the Final Four. So not only is it happening more often, those teams playing the underdog role are now winning those regional finals.