NCAA Basketball: Why March cinderellas are becoming more frequent

What do all of these teams have in common?

More often than not when a double-digit seed makes a deep run in March, they have three traits in common, they are a veteran team that has dependable guards and don’t turn the ball over. A lot of times the further a Cinderella goes in the tournament they become susceptible to succumbing to pressure, turning the ball over which leads to scoring runs and blowouts by the favorites.

The underdogs that have been successful have been the ones that can avoid those runs by not turning the ball over and taking the favorite’s best punch and still being within striking distance. Let’s take a look at three teams that made a run to the final four beginning with George Mason in 2006. The Patriots had four of their six rotation players, Jai Lewis, Tony Skinn, Lamar Butler, and Gabe Norwood as upperclassmen, with Skinn, Butler, and Norwood as backcourt pieces. On their way to the Final Four, the Patriots turned the ball over 12.8 times per game.

The 2018 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers followed the same blueprint to reach the Final Four. Four of their five double-digit scorers were upperclassmen and were led by the guard trio of Clayton Custer, Marques Townes, and Donte Ingram. The veteran leadership and the reliable guard play were a huge asset for the Ramblers, who were unfazed by their opponents and turned the ball over just 12 times per game.

In 2021 UCLA was the latest team to make a run from the First Four to the Final Four and Mick Cronin’s Bruins followed their own path but the traits were still there. Their lone senior, Chris Smith was limited to just eight games, but juniors Jules Bernard, Cody Riley, and Jalen Hill gave the Bruins plenty of leadership. They were a very guard-heavy team with five guards in their rotation with Bernard being joined by sophomores Johnny Juzang, Tyger Campbell, and Jaime Jaquez in the starting lineup. They also coveted the basketball, turning the ball over just 10.5 times per game.

The proof is in the pudding, whether you tweak the blueprint or not, having veteran leadership with dependable guards that don’t turn the ball over is a recipe for lower-seeded teams to have success in March.