NBA Draft 2023: Top returning college prospects most likely to break out

The 2022 NBA Draft had an unprecedented number of one-and-done freshmen with 26 hearing their name called, and a few others going undrafted. That’s likely a factor as to why there isn’t a surefire projected lottery pick in this returning group. Whereas last year, both Jaden Ivey and Benedict Mathurin returned for their sophomore seasons and performed well at the U19 World Cup in the offseason, validating that buzz.

But I still feel like this is a relatively deep returning class entering the season. There’s a handful of players who I have late first to mid-second-round grades on right now that could break out. Players always break out and are far better than initially anticipated from the returning group, as some freshmen typically struggle. For example, nobody saw the rise of Johnny Davis coming last season. Franz Wagner, Keegan Murray, Davion Mitchell, and Chris Duarte are other prospects that made surprising lottery jumps.

Here are some returning prospects I expect to take a big leap next season, and are my top returning NBA Draft prospects.

Arthur Kaluma – Creighton – Big wing/Forward – 6’7, 221 lbs – March 2002

Kaluma turned his early season promise into some late-season production, scoring in double figures in five of their last six games. He’s a big wing that has the length and frame to guard up a few positions, even playing center when Ryan Kalkbrenner went down with an injury in the postseason.

Kaluma’s season was more flashes than consistent production. He posted low, steal and block rates, and seemed to miss opportunities for tags and rotations. He’s theoretically pretty switchy with his movement skills and positional size, but right now I view him as a big three-small five defender.

Offensively, Kaluma’s game is strength-based. He’s a powerful slasher that, when he’s able to dislodge the defense, looks incredibly hard to stop. But, Kaluma has a difficult time changing his driving angle and stopping and starting, leading to a handful of offensive fouls. When teams close out on Kaluma, he can burn slower defenders with his straight-line driving and stride length.

But without a reliable jumper, defenders could sag off of Kaluma and make those driving lanes harder to navigate. Teams can live with their five on him right now. That’s what makes his jumper such a swing-skill. Kaluma took over 100 threes as a freshman but made just 26%. His touch, free throw percentage, and a handful of bad misses are not great indicators that he’s going to become a good shooter.

The analytics don’t love Kaluma and there are certainly times I worry about the feel and processing. But, he’s not someone that’s going to need plays drawn up for him to score, and if the motor improves, he can be a multi-positional front-court havoc-wreaker. He lacks the defensive intensity that Tari Eason has, but Eason also didn’t light it up as a freshman. In terms of archetype, I think that’s what you’re looking for with Kaluma.