NBA Draft 2023: Top returning college prospects most likely to break out

Kris Murray – Iowa – WIng – 6’8, 215 lbs – August 2000

Having seen Iowa multiple times in person over the past few seasons, Murray seems to consistently improve as his role expanded. Aside from looking nearly identical, there are certainly similarities between Kris and his twin brother Keegan. The bodies are essentially the same and they both are mismatch hunters with the ability to space the floor against fives and punish guards in the post.

Kris is the more natural and better shooter. He made 38% of his threes on 10 threes per 100 possessions. The self-creation reps were a bit flawed, but as Murray dribbles upright and is left-hand dominant, and is by no means an elite playmaker. But, he finds low-usage ways to score, like as a cutter, or play-finisher, or running hard in transition.

Murray’s help-defense was his bread and butter on that end, using good movement skills, his long arms, and good instincts to be a weak-side rim protector. In terms of a two-way threshold, Murray was the only high-major player last season to have a steal percentage above 2.5, a block percentage above 5.0, and 35 or more made threes. While he was asked to guard fives at time, Murray as a small-ball five isn’t super plausible at the next level. But he should be able to guard both forward spots as a plus-team defender.

We surely will get to see what Murray’s full on-ball arsenal looks like this year, as Fran McCaffery loves to spam the usage of his best player. Developments as a passer and handler are what I’m looking for from Murray (particularly in the short-roll). But like Keegan, I don’t think Kris will constantly need the ball in the NBA to fit a role. At worst, betting on bigger wings that can shoot and guard a few spots have success and that’s why I believe Murray can be a first-round prospect.