NBA Draft 2023: Top returning college prospects most likely to break out

Other names worth monitoring

Coleman Hawkins – Illinois

He has had an uneven first two seasons, but should finally step into a consistent role with the opportunity to showcase his unique skill set without Kofi Cockburn dominating (and taking up space) at the five. Hawkins has some ability to initiate offense out of the high post with his passing and handling ability. He will have to shoot it more consistently to prove he’s a true stretch big, instead of a theoretical one.

Defensively, Hawkins does a good job of making energy plays and using his length to protect the rim. He’s not an elite rebounder but won’t get killed on the glass either. I don’t expect him to score a ton, but if he can be a positive play finisher, he could be what the modern NBA is looking for in a low-usage five.

Emoni Bates – Eastern Michigan

Bates’ freshman season was not ideal, as he missed a handful of games with an injury while the Tigers simultaneously went on their best stretch of the season. When he did play, Bates had some elite shooting flashes, but largely struggled from the field, with 38/32/64 shooting splits. Bates was one of the youngest players in college, so it’s probably unfair to be too critical of his play. But he will have to answer questions about his motor, ability to confide into a team construct, and self-creation ability.

Bates is still a lanky wing with good shooting mechanics and has some real shooting upside. There’s always room for big wing shooters in the NBA, Bates just now has to prove he’s consistent. I’m not sure playing at Eastern Michigan will help alleviate those concerns, but it’s worth monitoring.

Julian Strawther – Gonzaga

Gonzaga’s Strawther was rock-solid as a floor-spacing wing last season. He’s got standard wing size at 6’7, clean-looking shooting mechanics, and shot versatility to match, making him a potential three-and-D candidate. Strawther doesn’t do a ton on-ball, but likely won’t be asked to do much besides attack closeouts at the next level.

Strawther had good rim-finishing numbers last season, but I’d like to see more attempts this year. Shoot it at a high-clip and defend, and Strawther strikes me as a potential late-first, early to mid-second round prospect.

Colby Jones – Xavier

Xavier’s Jones ended the season on a scoring tear. He needs to find some consistency from deep, but Jones has good size and craft with the ball to intrigue teams as a secondary creator.

Alex Fudge – LSU

Fudge (started his career at LSU, now at Florida) caught my eye last year with his mix of length and athleticism. He posted terrific steal + block numbers and does a lot of little things on defense to muck things up. Offensively, he needs to show huge growth as a shooter and just being generally useful when he’s out there. But his tools give him some different avenues to be used in.

Deeper Sleepers

Ricky Council – Arkansas

Council is a well-built, freak athlete that has played mostly at the guard spot at Wichita State in his first two seasons. Now at Arkansas, he will spend more time off the ball and on the wing, which could be good for his development.

He’s a career 34% three-point shooter on 112 attempts, but good free throw numbers have me optimistic. If Council buys into being a hard-nosed, floor-spacing wing, there’s a chance he becomes a real prospect.

Maxwell Lewis – Pepperdine

After adjusting to the speed of the college game, Pepperdine’s Maxwell Lewis put together an awesome stretch of basketball in late January to finish out the year. He’s another plus athlete, with good shot mechanics. He needs to turn the tools into more production, get to the rim and finish better, and fine-tune his decision-making (1:2 assist to turnover ratio) but a big year could have Lewis primed to be a second-round pick as a three-and-D player.

Drew Peterson – USC

USC’S Drew Peterson put himself more on the NBA radar in the pre-draft process, and is now back at USC and should be one of the best players in the Pac-12. At 6’9, Peterson has an advanced passing feel and shot 41% from deep, while also being a good defender.

He’s an odd-ball given he mostly plays on the perimeter. But if he shoots it well on higher volume, and shows he can create more one-on-one advantages, he is an intriguing connector prospect.