NCAA Basketball: Top 10 teams most likely to win 1st title in 2022-23

10. Florida State Seminoles

Highest NCAAT finish: Title game in 1972

After missing out on the NCAA Tournament last season, FSU returns multiple key pieces, including former five-star prospect Matthew Cleveland. He averaged 12.5 ppg as a 6’7 wing and made just six total three-pointers. He’s a consensus breakout candidate and if he becomes a star, the Seminoles can be a real threat.

Florida State tends to make runs in the NCAA Tournament thanks to its quality depth and size that overwhelms opponents that aren’t used to it. That have some of that with two-time Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year Jaylan Gainey, as well as 6’10 freshman forward Baba Miller. If Jaylan Warley can become the true point guard this team needs to break out, they’ll be a tough out in the field.

9. San Diego State Aztecs

Highest NCAAT finish: Sweet 16 (4 times)

The Aztecs consistently have one of the best defenses in NCAA Basketball but what limits their ceiling is the lack of offense and high-level individual talent. The team returns most of its core, including star guard Matt Bradley. But what could give them a real chance to make a run this time around potentially is the addition of Seattle U transfer guard, Darrion Trammell. He averaged nearly 19 ppg in the past two seasons and is a good defender as well.

With Nathan Mensah as a capable interior defender inside, San Diego State has both the offense and defense to compete against most teams. And if they get a favorable seed, could make a deep run and finish higher than they’ve ever had.