Tennessee Basketball: 2022-23 season preview and outlook for Volunteers

Projected starters for Tennessee Basketball

Point Guard – Zakai Zeigler (Sophomore)

Last year, Zeigler broke out on the scene as the reliable, lightning-quick, energetic backup point guard who came off the bench to provide scoring and offensive facilitation. Don’t let his 5-9, 171-pound frame fool you, he is as good of an on-ball defender as it gets in the country. He’s an absolute pest on that side of the floor, which helped him earn SEC All-Defensive Team honors.

When projecting the starting lineup, he seems like the no-brainer selection to start this year after making only one start last season. Chandler’s departure leaves a massive void in the role of offensive distributor, Ziegler will have to be the one to help fill it. He proved capable last season, averaging over seven assists per 100 possessions (Chandler recorded slightly over nine last year) and was able to record as much as eight in a game as he did in their first SEC Tournament game against Mississippi State.

Zeigler is an adequate scorer, pitching in 8.8 points per contest last year, but will need to be a more efficient scorer. He made only 41% of his two-point attempts last season, a painfully low total. However, he shot well from three-point range on relatively high volume (35% on almost four attempts per game) and was an exceptional free throw shooter (84%). If Ziegler can become more of a reliable scorer on two-point attempts where he doesn’t get fouled, he can put on an All-SEC campaign. His defensive intensity and instant energy sparks the rest of the team whenever he is on the floor. His coming back to Knoxville is a huge plus.

Guard – Santiago Vescovi (Senior)

With the emergence of Chandler and Zeigler at point guard, Vescovi was allowed to play more off-ball last season and the Vols reaped the benefits of his three-point marksmanship. He’s one of the best three-point shooters off the catch in the SEC and without the burden of facilitation (he recorded his lowest assist rate in his three years in Knoxville) he scored at his highest rate and eclipsed the holy 40% three-point threshold last year at 40.3% to go along with significant volume (over seven attempts per game and an astronomical 13 per 100 possessions).

He’s the best shooter on this team and the role he played last season was a big key to reeling off 13 wins in the team’s last 15. However, one of those two losses (the big one against Michigan) came when he made only one of his five three-point attempts and passed up several more towards the end of the game. His three-point shooting is vitally important to this team, when he made three or more triples in a game, the Vols won 81% of the time. That number drops to 69% when he doesn’t make at least three triples. The Vols were a good three-point shooting team in conference play, and Vescovi was their best shooter.

There is still improvement needed when shooting within the perimeter, making only 43.9% of his two-point attempts. He’s also not one to draw a ton of fouls, only shooting 3.4 free throws per 100. He’s an excellent three throw shooter (79% last year after shooting 80+% in his first two years) but just doesn’t get to the line a whole ton.

Vescovi’s role will be the same this year and I expect it to be vital to the Vols’ success again and possibly earn him a second straight trip to the All-SEC team.

Guard – Josiah-Jordan James (Senior)

Rick Barnes’ first McDonald’s All-American signee is now entering his senior season at Tennessee. JJJ has had quite the career and has been a key role player on some good Tennessee teams. Last year, he was marvelous on the defensive end and was the anchor/best on-ball defender on one of the best defensive teams in America.

James can guard all five positions and finished the season as Tennessee’s leading rebounder and shot blocker on a per-game basis. He does all the little things well defensively and will consistently draw the toughest assignment on that side of the floor and succeed more often than not. The Vols ranked 16th nationally in defensive steal percentage according to KenPom and James’ versatility was the cause of many of those turnovers.

Offensively, he’s a little limited. He’s an adequate three-point shooter (32%) and almost makes half of his two-point attempts (48%). But the athleticism is still there. He has a very strong build and his 10 points per contest were a testament to his ability to score when called upon.

James has a ton of experience, since coming to Knoxville, he has started 73 games and has logged minutes in 84. He’ll be called upon once again to be a leader for this team and the defensive anchor: arguably the most important to the team’s identity.

Forward – Olivier Nkamhoua (Senior)

Despite injuries ending his season prematurely, Olivier Nkamhoua broke out as a key player for the Vols last season in the 22 games he did play, all of which were games he started in.

Nkamhoua established himself as a reliable screener and roller to the basket, excellent offensive rebounder, and serviceable defender. His normal counting stats saw a big increase from the previous year, making him one of the Vols’ most improved players. His scoring went up from 2.3 points per game to 8.6, his total rebounds from 1.3 to 5.6, and blocks from 0.3 to 1.1.

His absence was evident in the upset loss to Michigan in the NCAA Tournament and at 6-8, he provided plenty of lineup versatility for Coach Barnes as a big man in small lineups  (his 9.5 offensive rebound percentage and 15.3 total boards per 100 made sure team rebounding didn’t get sacrificed in those lineups) as well as a complimentary traditional power forward in bigger lineups.

I expect to see similar production this season for the senior big man from Finland. Barnes will use him in a variety of ways but his role will still be to set good screens on the perimeter, grab rebounds, provide solid interior defense and score if needed. He expanded his shooting range to shoot the occasional three-pointer (attempting 1.3 per game and making 44.8% of them). I expect him to increase shooting volume slightly and become more of an all-around offensive weapon, something the Vols would happily embrace.

Center – Uros Plavsic (Senior)

Speaking of improved big men, Plavsic made a crucial leap last season and was relied upon more offensively after the Nkamhoua injury than he ever has in his career.

Want one big stat to prove just how much Plavsic won Barnes’ trust over the last three years? In his first year in Knoxville, he played a modest 7.3 minutes per game. His second year, that number dipped all the way down to 4.4. Last season, he started 21 games and saw 14.1 minutes of action per contest. Now, some of that was out of necessity because of the Nkamohoua injury late in the season, but there was a visible improvement. At seven feet tall, Plavsic provided great size but at times, was a liability offensively in his first few years to the point where he was virtually unplayable at times.

Last season, he was finally competent around the rim, with his two-point percentage increasing from 46.7% to 57.3%. He also established himself as a high-level offensive rebounder (grabbed 12.7% of his team’s missed shots) and an interior defender that was able to not only alter shots near the rim but one that Barnes trusted enough to give big minutes in crucial games.

The biggest issue for Plavsic in this role is still staying out of foul trouble. His first year with the Vols, he committed a comical 12.8 fouls per 100. Now, he still commits a high rate, but it has decreased to a less cartoonish 7.2. With the Vols being more versatile with their lineups this season, his foul trouble won’t be as crucial as it was at times last year. However, it would still be a luxury for them to have Plavsic help keep opponents off of the free throw line and be able to play good defense without fouling.

Overview

This is only one of many possible lineups the Vols will implement to start games. However, it is certainly going to be experimented with early on. Vince Ferrara from WNML in Knoxville tells me that he expects to see a similar lineup like this to start the season, but with Barnes having more emphasis on playing faster, can certainly change to feature more athletic players coming off the bench. The lineup I included is more of a reflection on what “going big” will look like. With Barnes’ history of not starting some freshman players off the bat, it is expected that a starting five of the team’s most experienced players will open up the season.

With that being said, the Vols have incredible depth. It might be one of the deepest teams Barnes has had at Tennessee. Let’s take a look at some of the players that will come off the bench or in many scenarios, start games this season.