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NC State Basketball: 2022-23 season preview and outlook for the Wolfpack

By Cooper Watson

RALEIGH, NC - DECEMBER 22: Mr. Wuf, mascot of the North Carolina State Wolfpact. performs during a game against the St. Bonaventure Bonnies at PNC Arena on December 22, 2012 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC - DECEMBER 22: Mr. Wuf, mascot of the North Carolina State Wolfpact. performs during a game against the St. Bonaventure Bonnies at PNC Arena on December 22, 2012 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) /
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Kevin Keatts of the NC State Basketball (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) /

The 2021-22 men’s college basketball season was a nightmare for NC State Basketball fans. For the first time in 100 seasons, the Wolfpack lost at least 20 games in a season, finishing 11-21 overall and 4-16 in the ACC.  A 1-11 record in their last 12 games dropped them to dead last in the ACC.

So why exactly did NC State have such a dreadful 2021-22 campaign?

The primary reason was that NC State ranked No. 246 in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom last season, its lowest ranking of the KenPom era (1997-). It ranked dead last in the ACC in opponent effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage.

Manny Bates suffered a season-ending injury in the first minute of the first game of the season. Bates — who transferred to Butler this offseason — is one of the premier defensive centers in the country. Let’s dig into a few stats to see how much his absence actually affected NC State’s defense last season.

Per Hoop-Math, NC State’s opponents shot 61.6% at the rim last season. In 2020-21, when Bates was active, its opponents shot 62.2% at the rim. In reality, opponents converted most of their shots around the rim with Bates standing there in 2020-21 or with Ebenezer Dowuona and/or Jaylon Gibson in his place last season.

There’s more to rim protection than just shooting percentages though. In 2020-21, opponents took just 35.3% of their total shots at the rim, a respectable mark for NC State’s defense. Last season, NC State’s opponents took 43.2% of their total shots at the rim, a bottom 15 mark nationally.

Clearly, there are other factors than just personnel that shift these numbers, but a starting center can still have a major impact on rim protection statistics. From the two stats listed above, we can see that Bates was highly effective at deterring opponents from shooting at the rim compared to Dowuona and Gibson’s efforts last season.

That said, Bates’ injury was far from the only reason that NC State had the worst defense in the ACC last season. Kevin Keatts has tried to address some of those issues this offseason, bringing in four transfers, a freshman, and returning two key players from injury.

The Wolfpack lost its leading scorer this offseason with Dereon Seabron signing a two-way contract with the New Orleans Pelicans. Seabron was an All-ACC player last season, averaging 17.3 points and 8.2 boards per game. In all, NC State lost three of its top five and four of its top eight scorers, including Jericole Hellems (13.7 PPG) and Cam Hayes (7.0 PPG).

What do the metrics say?

KenPom’s preseason ratings have NC State at No. 81 nationally and No. 12 in the ACC. Torvik has the Pack at No. 90 nationally and No. 12 in the ACC. EvanMiya has them at No. 84 nationally and No. 10 in the ACC. These numbers are slightly more relevant in the context that NC State was picked to finish tenth in the ACC preseason media poll.

This is widely considered to be a make-or-break season for Keatts, who will pull out all the stops with a revamped roster this season.

Let’s take a look at NC State’s projected starting five.

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