NCAA Basketball: “League Pass Rankings” for 2022-23 season

Tier Four: Exciting with something to prove

18. Arizona

It was a dream first season for Tommy Lloyd in Tucson as the Wildcats won the Pac-12 and were a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. But, I’m curious to see how Lloyd coaches in year two without the likes of Benedict Mathurin, Dalen Terry, and Christian Koloko. I thought Lloyd ran some good stuff in the half-court and took some Gonzaga transition principles over with him, but they definitely struggled more when the game slowed down.

Pairing Kerr Kriisa with Courtney Ramey in the backcourt is an interesting fit. Both can play on and off the ball a little, but neither thrives in one area. Kriisa is an elite trash-talker when he’s on, but he had abysmal 34/33/81 shooting splits last season. There are some interesting breakout candidates on the wing in Pelle Larson and Adama Ball. I think we all collectively forget how good Azuolas Tubelis was as a freshman before taking a backseat last year, with an interesting face-up game.

17. Texas

I’ve probably had Texas too high in these rankings the last two years, as last year they took some time to gel under Chris Beard. They still have a little bit of a logjam up front, but their backcourt is much more exciting this year.

An NCAA Tournament breakout star, Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunter now is at the reigns of the Texas offense. He struggled with consistency last season but can go on tears as a shooter. Freshman Arterio Morris is a game-breaking athlete and should provide us with some Sportscenter Top 10 moments. The same goes for five-star freshman Dillon Mitchell. The projected first-round pick has real versatility at the forward spot and plays with an incredibly tenacious motor.

I’m a fan of the burnt orange court and jerseys. I also think Texas is a great “talking point” program. Beard was once perceived as one of the best coaches in the country. It’s not like his job is on the line or anything, but he has some expectations to meet in the best league in the country, so the pressure is on.

16. Michigan

Last year was quite a disappointment from a viewing standpoint as Juwan Howard had a handful of forwards that couldn’t shoot (including Caleb Houstan). That being said, I still enjoy Howard’s pro-style offensive sets that do a good job of putting his best passers in positions to make reads and plays.

That starts with Hunter Dickinson. The 7’1 big man looked great last season, as a scorer and playmaker. Dickinson is an elite college basketball villain, who is not afraid to chirp back at opposing fanbases.

I’m holding out some hope for the rest of the roster. Princeton guard Jaelin Llewellyn is a big x-factor, but keep an eye on freshman guard Dug McDaniel. The undersized D.C. native could make enough fun plays to win our hearts over. Freshman wing Jett Howard should provide some much-needed shooting and I’m curious to see if sophomore two guard Kobe Bufkin takes a leap. There’s a chance Howard rights the ship here and the Wolverines wind up winning the Big Ten.

15. Florida

It’s a new look in Gainesville with former San Francisco coach Todd Golden now in charge. I am actually a tad higher on this team than the consensus. Kyle Lofton and Myreon Jones are fifth years that can get buckets in the backcourt, and I believe Belmont transfer Will Richard is in line for a huge year.

The Gators are pairing two raw, but athletic specimens on the wing together in Alex Fudge and Kowacie Reeves. I’m not high on either as a shooter, but they are going to be menaces on defense and should punish the rim on offense. I also think it’s time Collin Castleton gets some respect nationally as he is one of the most underrated bigs in the country, and can gain some real “hateability” from opposing fan bases if the Gators can be relevant.

14. Illinois

The Illini are top of the list of “what is this team going to look like?”. After a year of Kofi Cockburn post-ups, and 30 horns set entries a game to him, not only do the Illini not have Cockburn, but they are playing positionless this season. Coleman Hawkins will take over at center. He’s a skilled breakout candidate who has more perimeter skills than post skills. They’ve added two Big 12 wings who haven’t lived up to lofty expectations the last few years.

Terrence Shannon is a game-breaking athlete who has struggled to stay healthy for an entire season (the preseason buzz on him is high). Matthew Mayer struggled in a higher usage role for Baylor last season. But, he’s capable of heaters with his combination of ball-handling and theoretical shot-making at 6’9. Sophomore wing RJ Melendez is another plus athlete primed for a breakout this year.

Illinois’ defensive style should completely change. We might see some full-court press from them, on top of switching everything in the half-court. This team will be best in transition with their athletes, so I expect them to want to play fast. They will live above the rim. I expect some inconsistent shooting (especially without Luke Goode for the first half of the season) and some growing pains in a tough non-conference, but come Big Ten play, their stylistic difference should be a fascinating watch.

13. Gonzaga

This is the lowest ranking for the Zags in the three years I’ve done this list. It’s not for lack of talent. This is arguably Mark Few’s deepest team and they will again be in the top 10 for most of the season. But, it lacks a bit of the starpower that previous teams had with no Chet Holmgren or Jalen Suggs.

Maybe it’s Drew Timme fatigue? He’s a star in the college game, with a variety of post moves, and hilarious celebrations that make him the face of the sport. But we’ve just seen it for a few years now. It’ll be a typical Zags season: a challenging non-conference schedule before they blow out 90% of the WCC teams. They will score a ton of points (have led the country in points per game the last four seasons) and play fast, I just am not as excited as I usually am.

12. TCU

Like Indiana, some people are weary of TCU’s preseason ranking (No. 14 in the AP). Yes, the Horned Frogs are bringing back a majority of their scoring from a team that was an Eight seed in the NCAA tournament, so what makes them so special? They will have to answer that question in the daunting Big 12.

But on the court, Mike Miles Jr. should be in line for a shooting progression to the mean. But he’s a bucket-getter and definitely an All-American candidate. TCU’s entire roster couldn’t hit the side of a barn, finishing 332nd in the country in three-point percentage. The suspect shooting could lead to some ugly games, but Miles, and NCAA Tournament folk hero Eddie Lampkin, combined with some pressure to win have me intrigued enough.