Tennessee Basketball: Takeaways from unexpected loss to Colorado

Colorado ended up being a tougher game than expected for Tennessee Basketball on Sunday, taking full control in the second half. What are some takeaways?

Doomed by what will be one of the worst shooting performances you will see in college basketball all season long, the Volunteers became victim by an early season upset against Colorado. The Buffaloes, who just 48 hours earlier dropped a shocking game against Grambling State, traveled to Bridgestone Arena and picked up a big resume booster against 11th-ranked Tennessee Basketball.

The loss likely boots Tennessee out of the top 20 and potentially out of the top 25. But that might not end up being the only significance of this loss. When you look at Tennessee’s resume at the end of the season and going into the NCAA Tournament, it can be a loss that is either levied against them for seeding purposes or possibly be looked at as a justifiable loss. However, that latter outcome is heavily dependent on how Colorado handles the rest of its season and how NET rankings view them.

But for the loss itself, how could such an experienced team drop such a winnable game on a “neutral” floor that is more of a home game than any neutral venue around? Let’s break down exactly how the Vols fell victim to the November upset bug as well as analyze whether or not this should be a serious cause for concern for games moving forward.

Colorado won the painted area

When looking for the culprit of Tennessee’s Nashville failure, look no further than how the game was played by either team in the paint. Colorado dominated the points in the paint total 34-10 and many of Tennessee’s turnovers (specifically from veteran players such as Santiogo Vescovi and Olivier Nkamhoua) occurred in that painted area. The Vols’ timidness and the Buffs’ opportunistic interior defense helped produce one of the ugliest shooting statistics we’ll see from a team this year: 23.1%.

No, that number isn’t what Tennessee shot from the outside (that number was a less embarrassing 27%). That puny 23.1 number is the percentage of shots made by the Vols from two-point range. Ultimately, that’s what did them in. Shooting poorly from the field can be overcome by good offensive rebounding and opportunistic second-chance shooting. But here’s the issue, when shots near the rim aren’t falling and you can’t even get your best looks from near the basket to go in and take advantage of the offensive rebounds you grab, it doesn’t matter. You won’t be successful.

Colorado was just better in the area of the floor where you have to be the toughest. Plain and simple. Sure, Tennessee negated some of their poor perimeter shooting with offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line (they attempted 30 free throws) but missing 20 of your 26 attempts from two is an obvious accomplice to an upset.

The Uros Plavsic injury loomed large

Tennessee’s starting center, Uros Plavsic, went down early in the first half with an apparent ankle injury. He did not return to the game and only logged three minutes of action.

Tennessee was able to still build what was their biggest lead of the game (26-18) but without Plavsic’s interior defensive presence and ability to make shots near the basket, the Vols crumbled in the second half. Plavsic is looking to become more of an offensive threat this season and has already grown as a more efficient scorer over the course of his career. His two-point percentages have gone from 42.1% his first year, to 46.7% his second and last year, made a career-high 57.8% from inside the arc. Along with Nkamhoua, he is the most reliable interior scoring presence.

With the Serbian big man out of the lineup, Nhamhoua made only one of his four two-point attempts and reserve big men Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka did not attempt a single shot in their combined 11 minutes of action. His absence was detrimental. If the injury keeps him out longer than just this game, they will need Nkamhoua to be more of a scoring threat inside and will need way more minutes and production from Aidoo and Awaka.

It wasn’t just on offense where his presence was missed. Plavsic’s seven-foot frame and shot-altering ability could’ve kept Colorado from being able to convert many of their opportunities. The Buffaloes made 52.8% of their 36 attempts en route to their points in the paint dominance.

MISSING: Tennessee’s starting backcourt

It wasn’t exactly banner day for the starting backcourt unit for Tennessee on Sunday. Vescovi’s 11 points came inefficiently as he was 0-2 from two-point range and 2-11 from three and a negative assist-to-turnover ratio of 3:4. Starting point guard Zakai Zeigler made only two of his six attempts inside the arc as well as two of his six attempts from three. Oh, and other starting wing player Julian Phillips was nearly invisible in his 15 minutes of action (five points and a rebound on 1-6 shooting from the field).

Vescovi and Ziegler are way too important to this team to struggle like that. When they shoot that poorly, this team will lose way more games than they should. Nobody should have a problem with the shots they took, per se, but you have to be able to knock down open looks when the game is still within reach. Vescovi made his first three-point attempt (and was actually fouled on the play which gave him a four-point play) and missed his next nine before making one late in the game when the Vols were attempting to climb out of a looming double-digit deficit. He’s a lights-out shooter and is one of the best and most reliable in the SEC. You want the ball in his hands for those looks. But like in the NCAA Tournament loss last year against Michigan, it can be damning if they don’t go in.

For Ziegler, it’s vital that he figure out how to score in his new role as the starting point guard. Last season, he successfully came off the bench to provide the offensive spark. Now, he is tasked with providing 30-plus minutes of being the floor general per game and that includes the action from the opening tip. The Vols could still bring him off the bench this season and play Vescovi as the starting point guard but that, in theory, creates fewer chances for Vescovi to do what he does best and shoot three-pointers off the catch. Ziegler is the best point guard on this team and should still be trusted with that role, but he has to be better than what he was against Colorado.

Final takeaway

The Vols are still one of the three best teams in the SEC. The roster is still loaded with talent and experience and I wouldn’t sound the alarm just yet if I’m a Vols fan. There were some positives in this game including getting 34 bench points (Josiah-Jordan James and Tyreke Key scored 15 apiece to lead the team in scoring). The team as a whole shot 10-37 from three but James and Key combined to shoot 6-13. Those two players were reliable scorers and James, as usual, was a great defensive presence with his three steals.

Tennessee even did a great job of noticing the shots weren’t falling and tried to ignite some offense from the free-throw line. Key, specifically, was 9-11 from the line and was aggressive on drives to the basket.

The defense is still the strength and held Colorado to under a point per possession. However, if Plavsic’s ankle keeps him off the floor and the starting backcourt fails to get more efficient offensive production, this loss will feel more like an omen than an outlier.