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Bracketology 2023 projected field: UConn and Purdue land No. 1 seeds

By Jason Burgess

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: Led by committee chairman Mark Hollis (3rd from L), the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: Led by committee chairman Mark Hollis (3rd from L), the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) /
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Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports /

South Region (Louisville)

(1) Purdue vs. (16) Grambling/NC Central
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Kentucky
(5) North Carolina vs.(12) Providence/Rutgers
(4) Xavier vs. (13) Oral Roberts
(6) Marquette vs.(11) Oklahoma
(3) Virginia vs.(14) Liberty
(7) Iowa State vs. (10) Charleston
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Chattanooga

In the South Region, Purdue is the top seed despite falling from the ranks of the unbeaten thanks to a 65-64 loss to Rutgers on Jan. 2. The Boilermakers are now 4-1 in quad 1 games but the reason they aren’t the top overall seed for me is the strength of their schedule, which while strong, the wins over Duke and Gonzaga will likely age better than those over Marquette and West Virginia as the season moves on. From a metrics standpoint, the results-based KPI and SOR favor Purdue slightly more than BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin. Purdue is firmly on the top line and it is likely that a strong Big Ten season will keep Zach Edey and company in that No. 1 overall conversation.

Another team I like in this region is the Xavier Musketeers. Not only did they hand UConn their first loss, but with a strength of schedule at 37 they’ve played five quad 1 games with a 2-3 record. They’ve lost to Duke, Gonzaga, and Indiana by a total of 13 points. Offensively they are ranked in the top 10 of offensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, and three-point percentage. The Musketeers don’t shoot a ton of three-pointers but are 3rd in the country making over 40% of them, but also shoot inside the arc at over 55%. The guard combo of Souley Boum and Colby Jones and forwards Jack Nunge and Zach Freemantle give the Musketeers a dangerous squad that can match up with almost any team.

Rank Charleston has been a rallying cry in college basketball circles for most of the first two months and in the first week of 2023, the 14-1 Cougars are ranked No. 23. Their only loss entering this week was to then No. 1 North Carolina in a game where they led by seven at halftime and since then the Cougars have reeled off 13 straight wins to end 2022. The question for Charleston is can they keep things rolling in a tough CAA that includes Delaware, Towson, Hofstra, and UNC-Wilmington. If the Cougars have a strong conference season they may be in the at-large conversation, but more than two conference losses would all but end those hopes in my opinion.

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