Another ACC battle pits Miami against Duke, with both teams needing a premier win; will the Blue Devils get on track at home or can the Hurricanes get a huge road win?
TV schedule: Saturday, January 21, 12:00 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina
Miami (15-3) was one of the surprise teams of last year’s NCAA Tournament, but it’s no surprise that these Hurricanes continue to make waves. They’re sitting at #17 in the rankings, but have had a few struggles in recent weeks, losing their last two conference road games in ACC play against Georgia Tech and NC State. Can they get back on track in a much more hostile road environment?
Junior guards Isaiah Wong (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.8 apg) and Nijel Pack (11.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg) have been as advertised for the Hurricanes. Senior guard Jordan Miller (14.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg) has had a really nice season, while sophomore forward Norchad Omier (14.0 ppg, 10.2 rpg) has really emerged as the frontcourt piece for these Hurricanes. Spearheaded by Omier’s impact, the Hurricanes are one of the best interior offensive teams in the country.
Despite being in the AP Top 25, the Hurricanes are not looked highly upon by any of the metrics, sitting at 41st in the NET rankings and 42nd by KenPom. They do sit 10th in offensive efficiency, but their defense has had some porous performances, especially in ACC play in recent weeks. Still, there’s a lot of talent here for Miami, balanced nicely by Omier’s emergence; but can they procure enough defense on the road?
On the other side, Duke (13-5) continues their first season without Coach K and it’s not been the smooth or fantastic ride that many anticipated. Despite a bevy of freshman talent, the Blue Devils are outside the national rankings and have already dropped three road games in ACC play, including their last performance against Clemson one week ago.
Freshman center Kyle Filipowski (14.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg) has been that blue chip prospect who’s actually stood out this season, including 18 points and 14 rebounds in that game against Clemson last week. The Blue Devils are depending on the experience of junior guard Jeremy Roach (11.9 ppg, 3.2 apg), but he’s missed the last three games and is still questionable for Saturday. Other freshman pieces like Mark Mitchell (9.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Tyrese Proctor (8.3 ppg) are starting games, but aren’t having that impact that some anticipated before the season.
Unranked in the polls, Duke is 26th in the NET and 27th on KenPom, meaning they’re just on the outside of that Top 25 on most of the major metrics. Their offense has not been elite this season, and their 3-point shooting ranks among some of the worst in the nation; not just the ACC. Duke was just 3 of 20 from long range against Clemson and has not been getting the kind of offense they expected from players like Jacob Grandison.
As you can tell, there’s some disappointment around both of these teams in recent weeks and both could use this win as a pick-me-up. For the Hurricanes, they’re going to need Omier to win those battles down low with these really talented Duke big men. The Blue Devils won’t need to die by the 3, but need to figure out a way to get their whole offense working against a Miami defense that is beatable.
The fact that this game is being played at Cameron Indoor certainly favors the Blue Devils, but it’s hard to be too impressive with anything Duke has done recently. If Miami can get their offense going, then the Blue Devils are going to have troubles, especially if they can’t shoot their way back into the game. However, I expect that the Blue Devils will be able to do enough to take care of business at home, though it’s going to take much more than just Filipowski to get the job done down low.