ACC Basketball is rated as the worst high-major league, but that doesn’t show the whole picture. The conference is better where it matters… at the top.
ACC Basketball currently ranks 6th in the country in KenPom’s conference rankings. They are dead last among the six high major conferences with an adjusted efficiency margin of 9.50. Last season, the conference was 5th in these rankings but overachieved in the tournament. While matching last year’s success is probably a reach, the ACC is destined to over-perform expectations once again.
False Perception of the League
While the numbers are going to say that the ACC is bad, I’m going to say that the numbers don’t tell the whole story and we evaluate conferences in the wrong way. The ACC is being weighed down by the bottom of the conference. Louisville, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Boston College and Florida State are all ranked below 150 on KenPom and a couple of those teams are ranked way lower than that. The other five high major leagues have five teams below 150 combined.
So, the league is really bad at the bottom. That shouldn’t matter. Those teams don’t play in the NCAA Tournament. Those aren’t the teams that are on a national stage late in the season. The only real impact those teams have is that the top teams in the conference have to play the bottom teams. However, good metrics that rank teams are schedule adjusted anyway.
The Upside of the ACC
As people have seemed to have already forgotten, three ACC teams played in the Elite Eight last year. Two played in the Final Four and the conference had a team play for the National Championship. Although the league doesn’t have a Duke-level team this season, UNC, Miami, and Duke themselves have very large upsides. Virginia, who is currently the top team in the conference by adjusted efficiency margin, is in line to get a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can continue to play well.
Other Competitors
Outside of the four teams already listed, the ACC does have some other competitive and NCAA Tournament teams. North Carolina State, Pitt, and league-leader Clemson have been pleasant surprises this season. None of them have eye-opening metrics and all three are still far from being NCAA Tournament locks, but they do add some quality depth to the conference. Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Syracuse have some work to do to get into the 68-team field, but they are handfuls to deal with. All three have quality wins or at least have been competitive with the top teams in the conference.
Big Picture
Overall, the ACC having 15 teams is greatly hurting the league. If you just included the conference’s current NCAA Tournament teams, that would be 70% of the conference in the Big 12. I’m most definitely not trying to say that the league is better or equal to the Big 12. In fact, it’s not even on the same playing field.
To call it the worst league in the country because the league has 15 teams and the bottom five are really bad is narrow-minded. The ACC can most definitely have more NCAA Tournament success than people will expect.