In need of a major boost, can the Ducks pull a second massive upset or do the Wildcats get revenge at home?
TV schedule: Thursday, February 2, 10:30 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: McKale Center in Tucson, Arizona
It hasn’t necessarily been pretty this season for Oregon (13-9), but the Ducks are trying to stay above water. They’ve had some dreadful performances this season, including home losses to UC Irvine and Utah Valley, a blowout loss at Colorado, and a bad loss to Stanford just over a week ago. However, this team managed to upend this very Arizona team back on January 14th; does Dana Altman’s team have another upset in them?
The leader of the Ducks is senior guard Will Richardson (13.6 ppg, 5.5 apg), who runs the offense and is the leading scorer. Oregon’s also been leaning heavily on senior center N’Faly Dante (13.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg), the team’s best rebounder. Perhaps Oregon’s most important weapon is senior guard Jermaine Couisnard (13.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg), the transfer from South Carolina who missed the first two months of the season. However, he had 27 points and a breakout performance in that upset over Arizona last month.
A team clearly outside of the March Madness bubble, Oregon sits just 56th in KenPom and 58th in the NET rankings. Having nine losses, with some very unimpressive, and dropping several games in a weak Pac-12 does not help matters for the Ducks. Their defense isn’t great this year and they’re one of the worst 3-point shooting teams at the power conference level, even if they found a way to topple the Wildcats.
Revenge will clearly be on the minds of the players for Arizona (19-3), who were flabbergasted in that 19-point loss over two weeks ago. The Wildcats boast wins over Creighton, Indiana, Tennessee, and UCLA, but have had three very avoidable double-digit defeats in conference play. Which Arizona team shows up on Thursday night?
This is perhaps the conference’s most talented starting lineup, and it begins in the frontcourt with junior forward Azuolas Tubelis (20.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg) and sophomore center Oumar Ballo (15.6 ppg, 9.1 rpg). You’ll be hard-pressed to find a better one-two punch, especially not in the Pac-12. In the backcourt, the offense runs through junior guard Kerr Kriisa (11.2 ppg, 5.6 apg), while the play of Texas transfer Courtney Ramey (10.3 ppg, 3.4 apg) has turned heads in recent weeks.
Winners of four straight since that loss in Oregon, Arizona is back up to #5 in the AP Poll, sit 12th in KenPom, and are 10th in the most recent NET rankings. The Wildcats boast one of the nation’s best offenses, especially when Tubelis and Ballo get into their element. Things haven’t always been pretty or smooth for the Wildcats, but they’ve shown up in the big games and you bet they’ll have circled this rematch on their calendars.
Oregon didn’t win by 19 points on a fluke; they have it in them to win another big game, this time in Tucson. That being said, the Wildcats have played much better on the defensive side in recent weeks. Oregon thrived in that upset by making more than 70% of their 2-point shots, something that certainly cannot happen again if you’re Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats.
What keeps happening is that Arizona looks like they’re humming along and then they have a bad night, but that couldn’t happen for a second time against these Ducks right? We’re going to trust that those two big men will be far more impactful this time, while the Wildcats will do a better job shutting down Couisnard and the rest of this offense. Another blowout is very possible, but in the other direction this time, though the result should be a bit closer than that.