Pac-12 foes meet on Thursday night fighting for their bubble lives as the Oregon Ducks and USC Trojans go to battle.
TV Schedule: Thursday, February 9, 11:00 PM ET, ESPN2
Location: Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, OR
As is typical for the conference, the Pac-12 is pinning all of its NCAA Tournament dreams on only a couple of teams. A few stragglers are making their bubble case, though, and both can improve their odds with a win against the other on Thursday night.
The USC Trojans and Oregon Ducks are set to play in Eugene on Thursday night. There’s a chance this game’s importance will reveal itself when Selection Sunday rolls around next month.
USC has considerably less to worry about than Oregon, still riding the high of their win over the rival UCLA Bruins. The Trojans look like a solid bet to make the Big Dance, so long as they avoid traps on their schedule. A loss in Eugene may not even look all that bad to the committee.
Oregon, meanwhile, is in dire straits. The Ducks have been underperforming all season and have already reached double-digit defeats with a month to go. There’s still time to salvage the season, but Dana Altman’s team needs to start stringing together impressive victories quickly.
These teams haven’t faced each other yet this season. They also won’t face each other again unless it comes in the postseason.
Stylistically, these teams are very similar, which could make for a tight competition. An amazing example of this comes via offensive efficiency numbers on Bart Torvik. Heading into the competition. USC is sporting an adjusted offensive efficiency of 113.1. Oregon is sporting an adjusted offensive efficiency of … 113.1. Dead heat.
Oregon is good at shooting from two, but USC is the beast team in the country in defending the two-point shot, limiting opponents to a 42 percent make rate. The Trojans aren’t nearly as good at defending the three, but the Ducks aren’t nearly as good as making the three either.
A fun aspect of this contest will be the play of a handful of seniors, each with the drive to take their team to the NCAA Tournament, understanding the clock is ticking on their collegiate careers. While underclassmen reign for some of the top teams, arguably the five best players suiting up on Thursday are seniors.
The best player on the court will be USC guard Boogie Ellis. The Memphis transfer is having a career year, averaging 16.5 points per game. He’s typically at his best when the lights are brightest, with his two best scoring performances of the year coming in games against ranked foes (UCLA and Auburn).
Oregon has a bunch of good players, although none who are having great seasons expected of them. Will Richardson leads the offense down the court, while big man N’Faly Dante does his work in the paint; the two combine to average 27.2 points per game.
Ultimately, the Trojans have shown more often than the Ducks that they can win the big games. It’s hard to find too many impressive wins on the Ducks’ resume. Wins over Washington State and Villanova don’t look as good as they seemingly would’ve before the season, though two wins over Utah is nice. They also have that dominant win over Arizona – it seems the team has been striving for that high watermark performance ever since.
USC has shown more often that they have the players to push the team over the line in big games. Even on the road, that should continue for Andy Enfield’s team.
Prediction: USC 71, Oregon 68