Two ACC teams needing a boost face off in Chapel Hill; can Virginia get themselves back on track or does North Carolina get an impressive home win?
TV schedule: Saturday, February 25, 6:00 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Simply put, Virginia (21-5) has not been playing good basketball recently. Two weekends ago, they won an overtime game over Duke, but it’s been downhill since then. They had close calls against Louisville and Notre Dame, two of the ACC’s worst teams, and were then blown out on the road by Boston College earlier this week. Their anemic offense scored just 48 points against the Eagles.
If they’re going to bounce back, they’ll need better performances from their senior guards, as both Armaan Franklin (12.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Kihei Clark (11.6 ppg, 5.7 apg) were cold as ice in that upset loss. Senior forward Jayden Gardner (11.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg) has had some great performances this season and remains the team’s best rebounder, but Virginia needs a spark from someone else in this lineup.
The Cavaliers opened the week at #6 in the AP Top 25, though that’ll certainly change next week. They are all the way down to 34th in KenPom and 21st in the NET rankings. This defense is not playing at the level it’s been at previously during Tony Bennett’s successful run in Virginia, and we’ve already seen what can happen when the offense goes cold. Can the Cavaliers really turn things around after three straight miserable performances against the league’s bottom feeders?
Fortunately for them, North Carolina (17-11) is not in great shape either. The Tar Heels have won just two of their last seven games, including a close call against Notre Dame on Wednesday night. This program has spiraled from preseason #1 all the way to a bubble team on the outside looking in. Simply put, North Carolina needs to win this game to get back into contention for the NCAA Tournament.
They miss Brady Manek from last year’s title run, but the Tar Heels still have a productive three-headed monster. Senior forward Armando Bacot (17.3 ppg, 11.1 rpg) is one of the best big men in the country but is having a somewhat underwhelming season as the Tar Heels struggle. Junior guard Caleb Love (17.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg) has scored 23 points in three of their last five games, while fellow junior guard RJ Davis (15.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg) has had success at times as well. They just aren’t getting what they expected from this whole lineup.
Unranked for most of the season, North Carolina is all the way down at 45th in KenPom and 48th in the NET. It’s hard to get too excited for a Tar Heels team that just isn’t winning games or playing successful or cohesive basketball. The 3-point shooting has been horrific for the last month and the defense isn’t playing at a high-enough level to make up for their shortcomings. This team falls far short of comparing to last year’s title run.
These teams did play back in early January, with the Cavaliers winning by seven points at home. It was the only loss for North Carolina in January, but things have clearly changed since then. However, it’s important to remember that Bacot was injured at the beginning of that game, and it’s possible that the Tar Heels could’ve won in Charlottesville had their All-ACC big man been available.
Now, these are two teams both trending in a bad direction with the postseason just a few weeks away. These are two teams that desperately need wins to get back on track, with the Tar Heels clinging to their postseason lives, and Virginia hoping for an ACC crown. It’s hard to look at this matchup and expect much from the Tar Heels, but we’ll give them a slight edge at home against a Cavaliers squad that has simply looked lost for two weeks. However, things can change pretty quickly in college basketball.