The general conversation leading up to March Madness is frequently headlined by bubble talk and Cinderella predictions. We’re not here for any of that today. It’s time to talk about which NCAA Basketball teams can actually cut down the nets in Houston on April 3.
Before we get into the actual list, there is a recent trend that has emerged when it comes to national champions that all bracket-makers should know.
Eleven of the last 15 national champions have ranked higher nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency than adjusted defensive efficiency. While a dreadful defensive team will never win the national championship, most of the national champions in recent history have prided themselves on being elite offensively. That’s what we’re looking for in true national title contenders again this season – teams that are excellent offensively, have great guards, are well-coached, and can get stops when needed.
Four teams stand out as having the balance, coaching, and positive momentum necessary to actually cut down the nets in Houston.
Speaking of Houston…
Houston
Kelvin Sampson has turned Houston into a consistently nationally relevant program for the first time since the days of Phi Slama Jama and before that, Elvin Hayes. In 2021, the Cougars reached the Final Four but lost to eventual national champion Baylor. Last season, Houston advanced to the Elite Eight despite Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark missing most of the season.
This season, Houston boasts a record of 29-2 and has both Sasser (17.1 PPG) and Mark (10 PPG) back in the mix. The Cougars have been the No. 1 team on KenPom since Christmas and are the only team that ranks in the top 10 nationally for both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Most importantly, this Houston team has an identity. The Cougars control the tempo, dominate the offensive glass, and guard as well as any team in the country. They also have a go-to guy in Sasser and plenty of experience with four starters who have played in the Final Four.
Teams with great guard play and coaching usually fare well in March. Houston has one of the best three-man backcourts in the country with Sasser, Mark, and Jamal Shead (9.2 PPG, 5.5 APG), and one of the best coaches in the country in Sampson.
Eli Boettger, of Heat Check CBB, has created the Tournament Index, an NCAA Tournament prediction model. According to the Tournament Index, Houston’s average projected number of wins in the NCAA Tournament is 3.22, the highest of any team in the country.
Houston’s floor is the Elite Eight. Its ceiling is cutting down the nets in Houston.