NCAA Basketball Best Bets: Top futures picks to make 2023 Final Four

Houston +120

You’d like to be getting a better number than +120 for a team to win four games in a row, but Houston’s odds are this low for a reason. They are the No. 1 team in the nation.

Houston has been a juggernaut under Kelvin Sampson for three straight years. This is the third straight season that the Cougars are top 10 in both offense and defense in KenPom adjusted efficiency. In 2021, the Cougars went 28-3 and made the Final Four before losing to one of the best teams in recent memory in the eventual NCAA Champion Baylor Bears. Last season, the Cougars survived injuries to two starters in Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark on their way to an Elite Eight appearance. That undermanned Houston squad came extremely close to making consecutive Final Fours last year — but they shot an incredibly abysmal 1/20 from three-point land in the 50-44 loss to Villanova.

Experience and recent tournament success are key factors in forming predictions. I love a team that has been in the moment before and has proved that their style of play translates to March. Houston doesn’t have Kyler Edwards, Taze Moore, Josh Carlton, or Fabian White from last year’s team, but three key pieces are back in Jamal Shead, J’Wan Roberts, and Reggie Chaney. Plus, Sasser and Mark were key contributors on the Final Four team from 2021, and if they didn’t get hurt last season, I bet Sampson’s group would have cut down the nets in March.

Houston has continued their powerhouse ways this year on their way to a 29-2 record. Their only two losses came against a team that will be a No. 1 seed in Alabama, a game that they led for most of the way, and a one-point loss to a feisty Temple team, in which the Cougars shot 11-21 from the charity stripe. Houston could easily be undefeated. This group competes at a high level every single game, and because they do everything well, they are the least volatile title contender.

Sampson has replicated the same formula with this year’s group that brought his program to the national spotlight. His Cougars are incredibly disciplined and connected defensively, igniting fear in every opponent. The Cougars’ identity is rooted in playing harder than everybody else on that end of the floor and matching that energy on the glass. Houston remains elite on the offensive glass, as their 12.9 per game ranks 12th in the nation. game (12.9), plus they lead the nation in block percentage. They also rank 6th in the nation in turnover margin, averaging +4.8 per game.

While the culture for this squad is rooted in defense, they are also quite excellent offensively. It all starts with star guard Marcus Sasser, who leads the team with 17.1 points per game. Complimenting Sasser is point guard Jamal Shead, a great passer whose 5.4 assists leads the team. Tramon Mark is a big athletic guard who provides scoring punch as well, averaging 10.1 points per game.

Houston also boasts a potential NBA Lottery Pick in freshman Jarace Walker, a 6-8 240 lbs monster who can stretch the floor with his 35.8% mark from distance. J’Wan Roberts rounds out the starting five, and although his main strengths take the form of defense and rebounding, he’s great at finishing around the basket and has tripled his scoring average from last year up to 10.5 points per game.

This is a complete basketball team with no real weaknesses. The one concern I do have with this group is I don’t have a ton of faith in their late-game offense. I don’t have a better way to phrase it than sometimes it doesn’t look “pretty”. The team can become stagnant, or seem to trust Shead to create off the dribble a little more than I’m comfortable with. But in Houston’s first close game in over a month in their regular season finale on Sunday vs Memphis, Shead delivered a buzzer-beating game-winner.

With Shead, Sasser, and Mark, Houston doesn’t have a shortage of guards that can make things happen. My one hesitation stems from the fact that in the losses to Alabama and Temple, I just didn’t love what I saw from Houston in the final minutes.

However, this team is so good that I doubt they will need to play more than one or two close games on their way to a Final Four appearance. Houston is the safest bet to cut down the nets in their own city in April.

Playing them at +120 to reach the Final Four is a great value in my eyes, as Sampson’s groups have been great in March in back-to-back seasons. And this team is even better.