NCAA Basketball Best Bets: Top futures picks to make 2023 Final Four

Miami +900

My next pick is another team that made the Elite Eight last season in the Miami Hurricanes. The ACC regular season champions are beginning to get some more attention, but I still think this group is undervalued at +900 in a wide-open year.

Miami returns two starters from last year’s group in ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, who have both taken steps forward this season. The Canes made two big additions in the transfer portal in Nijel Pack and Norchad Omier, and Coach Jim Larrañaga integrated them seamlessly. Effectively, they replaced Charlie Moore and Sam Waardenburg, while sophomore Wooga Poplar became a starter and took Kam McGusty’s spots. I use the term replacement loosely as these players are from carbon copies, but they have done a fantastic job in helping Miami replicate the same strengths of last year’s squad.

Offensively they rank 13th in KenPom, scoring 79.8 points per game (23rd best in D1). Wong is a full-on star, who can hit difficult shots from all three levels, and has taken a big step this season as a facilitator. Miller might be my favorite player in college basketball, as he has evolved from a glue guy last season to a potential NBA guy. He’s become a capable scorer in the post, as well as a much improved three-point shooter.

Poplar has taken huge strides in his sophomore year and enters the ACC Tournament coming off his best game of the season, shooting 6-8 from long range on his way to 18 points in Saturday’s win over Pitt. Pack adds a new dimension as a knockdown volume three-point shooter with NBA range. Omier has remedied its biggest weakness from — and thrives at finishing around the basket.

Miami plays a unique brand of extreme small ball, with four guards on the floor at all times. While undersized in the front court with 6-6 Miller and 6-7 Omier, opponents struggle to exploit the Hurricanes on the interior. In the tournament last year, Miami beat an Auburn team by 18 that boasted two first-round bigs in Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith, and a USC team with an NBA big in Isaiah Mobley. That trend has continued this season, as the Canes make it very difficult for opponents to capitalize on their clear advantages in the height department. Omier’s strong 250 lbs frame allows him to hold his ground down low, and Miller makes up for his lack of height with his length and rebounding talent. Miami is so connected defensively in terms of trapping and scrambling. My dream is to see the ultimate contrast of styles and see Miami play Purdue, and honestly I think the Hurricanes would be Zach Edey’s biggest nightmare.

While their defensive metrics are poor (122nd in KenPom), which usually is a turn off for me when evaluating teams that can make a run, this team is the exception. Miami is all about the eye test. Situationally they are a strong defensive team, and they make up for their lack of height with their ability to make teams uncomfortable and force turnovers. The Canes are great at turning those turnovers into easy buckets on the other end of the floor, as they rank 20th in the nation in fastbreak points per game.

Miami doesn’t get a ton of production off the bench, but Bensley Joseph, Harlond Beverly, and Anthony Walker are all experienced and allow the Canes to maintain their style of play even when key starters are on the bench.

Miami was able to put together a 24-6 record this season, yet their best win away from home being a neutral court victory over Providence in November means they probably won’t be seeded above the four line. Only two of those six losses came by more than one possession (vs Maryland, at Gerogia Tech), which reveals the consistency of this group.

A bonus note: Miami is 10th in the nation in free throw percentage, connecting on 78% from the stripe. Plenty of close games in March are decided at the free throw line.

Jim Larrañaga is an elite coach who has shown his ability to win in March during his tremendous career. This Hurricanes team is his best chance in years to get back to the Final Four.

At the end of the day, I like to ride teams that I have faith in. When I watch Miami, I know I’m going to see a group that has tremendous chemistry, with players who can create for themselves and make difficult shots. This team is built for March, and nobody is going to want to play against them in the tournament.

+900 is an awesome value.