Would Houston Basketball have won the Big 12 this year?

Houston Basketball was in the Big 12 this season – they’re set to join next year – where would they have finished in the standings?

Houston Basketball is an AAC Tournament title away from potentially slotting in as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. It’s been another unbelievable season for Kelvin Sampson’s team.

It will be the last time Houston reigns over the AAC. Next year, the Cougars will be one of the new programs in the revamped Big 12.

If the Houston Cougars were in the Big 12 this season – they’re set to join next year – where would they have finished?

But it begs the question: Considering how insanely competitive the Big 12 was this year, would the team have been able to win it? And if not, where would Sampson’s squad finish? It was a questioned posed on the FOX College Hoops Twitter account on Monday.

The Big 12 was a gauntlet this season. The Kansas Jayhawks won the regular season crown despite five losses in league play. Houston lost less than half as many games overall for the whole year, recording just two defeats.

It’s not like Houston’s record in league and overall play is a function of weaker competition, though. While the team didn’t have to run through a league like the Big 12, the talent Sampson has accumulated at the school is very real, with the likes of Marcus Sasser, Reggie Chaney, and Jamal Shead playing for the program.

Taking a look at the teams Houston lost to this season may be instructive in this obscenely hypothetical exercise.

In conference play, Houston’s lone defeat came at home at the hands of upset-minded Temple. The Owls didn’t play any Big 12 teams this season, but proved to be a mid-tier team in the AAC, finishing just above .500 in both conference play and overall play. There’s not a single Big 12 team behind the Owls in the NET rankings, or even within 50 spots. So that loss doesn’t bode well for Houston.

Houston’s other loss this season came against Alabama, which proved to be one of the best teams in the country this season, despite loads of controversy. The Crimson Tide also beat Memphis by a closer margin than Houston and were demolished in their one game against a Big 12 opponent, losing by a couple dozen to the league’s worst team, Oklahoma.

Nevertheless, Alabama is second in the NET rankings entering play on Tuesday. First place? Houston.

So how would Houston have held up in the Big 12 this season? Would they still be the champions they are in the AAC? Or would they be more of a contender than a clear dominator?

It’s safe to say Houston wouldn’t have been a bottom-feeder, even in such a competitive conference. Houston isn’t what happens when you play in a weaker league – it’s what happens when you assemble a wildly talented team. Can’t take that away from the Cougars.

Entering Tuesday, Bart Torvik put the Cougars first in its rankings, ten spots above the closest Pac-12 opponent, Texas. Houston’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks fourth – behind Baylor – and adjusted defensive efficiency ranks seventh in the country, behind Iowa State.

Based on the conference differences, Houston’s strength of schedule is significantly weaker than the entire Big 12, according to KenPom. The Cougars have five Quad 1 wins this season. Texas Tech also has five Quad 1 wins, while every other Big 12 team has more. For context, Houston has one Quad 1 loss, while the Red Raiders have 12.

Houston would take more losses in the Big 12 than the AAC – it’s just the law of averages. But they’re competitive on the road and competitive against high-level programs. It would be tough for the Cougars to win the Big 12 this season, but a top-three finish feels like a safe bet.