Penn State vs Illinois: 2023 Big Ten Tournament game preview, TV schedule
By Joey Loose
It’s another big matchup between Illinois and Penn State, with this one in the Big Ten Tournament; can the Fighting Illini finally take care of business against a Nittany Lions squad on the bubble?
TV schedule: Thursday, March 9, 6:30 pm ET. BTN
Arena: United Center in Chicago, Illinois
Penn State (19-12) finds themselves squarely on the bubble, but could certainly make their way into the NCAA Tournament with a nice performance in this game. They’ve actually won five of six games on a relative hot streak to end the regular season, including their second win over Illinois just a few weeks ago. It hasn’t been perfect for the Nittany Lions, but they do have one of the best players in the nation leading the charge.
Senior guard Jalen Pickett (18.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 7.0 apg) was one of the best players in the MAAC for three years at Siena and has really turned it on in his final collegiate season. Pickett had 41 points in the most recent win over these Fighting Illini and this point guard is a dire threat to defenses. Senior forward Seth Lundy (14.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg) is the prominent force in the frontcourt while guard Andrew Funk (12.0 ppg) leads the Big Ten in 3-pointers made this season.
With the Nittany Lions sitting at 50th in KenPom and 56th in the NET, it’s clear that there’s work ahead if they want to secure that spot in the NCAA Tournament. They do have 5 Quad 1 wins and an offense that ranks among the Top 20 in the nation in the efficiency ratings. With an explosive threat like Pickett, Penn State has the talent to make serious noise in the postseason if they get there.
On the other side, Illinois (20-11) really doesn’t know what they’re going to be. This squad is talented and beat both Texas and UCLA on neutral sites early in the season, but they haven’t lived up to expectations in conference play, falling down to this 7-seed as a result.
For Illinois, senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (17.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg) has been a major part of the story, the leading scorer and a former star at Texas Tech. But he’s not the only Big 12 transfer doing good things for the Illini as both senior guard Matthew Mayer (13.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and sophomore forward Dain Dainja (9.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg) are doing nice work after coming over from Baylor. Junior forward Coleman Hawkins (9.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg) is also developing into a legitimate threat in the post, though he can also hit shots from outside at times.
Right now, Illinois is 32nd in KenPom and 33rd in the NET rankings. Though they are safely in the Tournament field, the Illini are shockingly just 2-10 against Quad 1 opposition, with the two wins being those aforementioned nonconference performances. This is a solid enough defensive squad but they don’t light it up from outside and both Dainja and Hawkins are relatively raw in the frontcourt, especially against some of the talented bigs in this league.
In each of the first two matchups between these teams, Illinois failed to contain Pickett and it’s not some wild secret. The Illini have struggled against the star players in these Big Ten matchups. Giving up 93 points at Penn State isn’t an acceptable performance; can we really expect the Nittany Lions to replicate this kind of success with their backs against the wall?
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It’s really difficult to defeat a team three times in a single season, especially in a matchup like this. You could classify both Penn State wins as upsets, but it’s hard to see it that way. Pickett will be the best player on the court and the Illini will need maturity and efficient play from their forwards. Pickett is going to score a ton of points, but Illinois does just enough to churn out a classic season-altering win.