Bracketology 2023: 10 teams that MUST win on Thursday to avoid NIT

SOUTH BEND, INDIANA - FEBRUARY 22: Armando Bacot #5 of the North Carolina Tar Heels high fives teammates against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center on February 22, 2023 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

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Bracketology Mississippi State Bulldogs forward Tolu Smith Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports /

Mississippi State Bulldogs – vs Florida

The 8-9 matchup in the SEC Tournament didn’t work in the Bulldogs’ favor. And it’s mainly because Florida has sunk after losing star forward Colin Castleton due to injury. The Gators are now going to be considered a “bad loss” for the bubble Bulldogs, even if their metrics would make it a Quad 2 loss.

1-seed Alabama is up next if Mississippi State wins, a game that would easily have them in the NCAA Tournament if they win. A loss to them wouldn’t hurt the Bulldogs from a Bracketology standpoint but one to Florida today would.

Penn State Nittany Lions – vs Illinois

The Nittany Lions have won 5 of 6 games in order to get back in the bubble, including beating Northwestern and Maryland. They have a Quad 3 loss and a 9-11 record against Quad 1/2 opponents, which puts them directly on the cutline.

Illinois is a big enough foe where a win likely puts them into the NCAA Tournament field. A loss would have the Nittany Lions sweating a ton on Selection Sunday. Jalen Pickett has played at an All-American level to this point, does he have one more big performance in him?

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