Illinois vs. Arkansas NCAA Tournament Round 1: How to watch, odds and predictions for March Madness

March Madness is finally here, and we have ourselves a doozy of an 8-9 matchup in the West region.

At point in time this matchup wouldn’t be happening, as the Illinois Illini were among the best teams in the country. A lot has happened since then, including the bottom falling out on Illinois’ season, although not to the degree that it derailed a trip to the Big Dance.

Will Illinois be able to channel the type of team they were earlier in the year or will they get caught by an Arkansas Razorbacks team with the higher seed?

Arkansas has made back-to-back Elite Eight appearances, and twins Makhel and Makhi Mitchell could power them that far. Their defense is stout and the Razorbacks are running into one of the absolute worst three-point and free throw shooting teams in the entire tournament. However the Illini might have the best defense on the first weekend of the tournament, and rank among the best in the country despite the ups and downs of their season,

Illinois is largely here because of the smothering defense, and a little consistency from a team that has been rather inconsistent all season long could carry it beyond the Round of 64 and end Arkansas’ dance early.

March Madness 2023: How to watch Illinois vs. Arkansas

• Date: Thursday, March 16
• Time: 4:30 pm ET
• Channel: TBS
• Streaming: NCAA March Madness Live
• Announcers: Brian Anderson / Jim Jackson // Allie LaForce

Illinois vs. Arkansas NCAA Tournament Round 1 odds

According to FanDuel, Arkansas comes into the matchup as a slight favorite (-130) but it’s hard to read into it much more than that. These 8-9 matchups are always impossible to decipher, and truly embody the madness of March since they’re essentially a coin flip.

Everyone always worries about their bracket getting busted by a No. 12 seed or in some crazy upset where the No. 2 seed loses, but it’s these 8-seeds and 9-seeds you have to be careful about otherwise they could topple your first weekend in the office pool.

Betting on them is truly like riding the lightning as it could go either way.

Illinois vs. Arkansas NCAA Tournament Round 1 prediction

Illinois was once the top team in the country, but that seems like ages ago. Couple that fall from grace with an early exit in the Big Ten tournament and general unreliability with teams from that conference in March Madness and it’s hard to see the Illini pulling it out.

On the other end, the Razorbacks are a brutal three-point shooting team, ranking among the worst in the Power 5 in three-pointers per game and three-point shooting percentage. That being said, Illinois has turned the ball over more than any other team in the Big Ten during the second half of the season and allows roughly 5.7 three points per game, which means if Arkansas throws enough up they could find a loophole. The Razorbacks are a solid free throw shooting team, though, tied for best among Division I schools. March, for as mad as it is, typically comes down to vital free throws at the end of games and that could be the difference maker between these two.

This is going to be a sloppy game, so bet the under and pencil in Arkansas to move on in your brackets.

Prediction: Arkansas 72, Illinois 68