NCAA Basketball: 10 most compelling 1st round 2023 NCAA Tournament matchups

Miami (5) vs. Drake (12)

Every year we search for a good 5/12 upset, and this one has all the makings. On the one hand, you have Miami, a team that made a surprise Elite Eight run last year and shared this season’s ACC regular season title with Virginia. Fighting out of the blue corner are the Drake Bulldogs, a team from Des Moines, Iowa that won its First Four game against Wichita State two years ago for its first NCAA Tournament win since 1971.

Miami is powered by ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong and his 16.2 points per game. Scoring isn’t a problem for the Hurricanes, as Wong is supported by fellow guards Jordan Miller and Nijel Pack in Jim Larranaga’s perimeter-oriented scheme. It’s defense where Miami struggles though, and the team could be in even more trouble because of the probable absence of big man Norchad Omier, who injured his ankle in the ACC Tournament. The Canes have one of the biggest offense/defense disparities of any tournament team according to KenPom, ranking 12th in adjusted offense and 132nd in adjusted defense.

Drake is equipped to take advantage of Miami’s defensive shortcomings for a variety of reasons. For one, the team is largely made up of upperclassmen, a common thread that runs through many mid-major upset makers. For another, they have Tucker DeVries, the son of head coach Darian DeVries. The 6’7″ sophomore lit the MVC on fire, averaging 19 points on his way to winning the Larry Bird Trophy (very cool company to keep!) as the conference’s Player of the Year.

Drake’s senior point guard Roman Penn has almost a 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio and is the main reason why the Bulldogs’ offense is in the top 30 nationally in turnover rate. Four of Drake’s starters shoot over 36% from three, and six different players shoot 76% or better from the free throw line. Drake won every conference tournament game by double digits, and has won 13 out of its last 14.

For Miami to win, they’re going to have to shoot the lights out, especially if Omier is out. Drake is third-best in the country in limiting opponents’ offensive rebounds, so without Omier, Miami figures to have a lot of one-and-done possessions.

That’s not to say they can’t do it. Larranaga is a tournament-tested coach, and Miami has shown they can win even without defense, beating Cornell by a ludicrous 107-105 score in December. If you take out an 88-70 loss to Maryland months ago, the rest of Miami’s margins of defeat are 6, 2, 2, 3, 1, and 7. They’re in every game.

I don’t see a scenario where this game isn’t close, and the winner has a real shot to make the Sweet Sixteen.