NCAA Tournament 2023: Mid-major teams with best shot at winning games
By Ryan Kay
Here is a look at Mid-Major teams that have received bids to participate in the NCAA Tournament and the likelihood of them winning a game or two.
Montana State
Best Wins: At Long Beach State (70-57), at North Dakota (81-71), Idaho (72-58), at Northern Colorado (77-56), Weber State (67-52), at Montana (67-64), at Eastern Washington (79-74), and Montana (72-68)
Notable Defeats: At Grand Canyon (54-60), at Oregon (51-81), Quinnipiac (53-70), Middle Tennessee State (71-72), at Arizona (64-85), Eastern Washington (67-70), and at Weber State (63-73)
Conference Tournament Results: They won all three games defeating Northern Colorado (84-73), Weber State (60-58), and Northern Arizona (85-78)
NCAA Tournament Seed and Opponent: No. 14 seed and they will play No. 3 seed Kansas State
Net Ranking: 103
KenPom Ranking: 110
RPI Ranking: 87
College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 109
Sagarin Ranking: 131
Quadrant 1 Record: 0-2
Quadrant 2 Record: 2-1
Chances and Odds to make it to the Sweet 16: 6%
Why Montana State can make a run in the NCAA Tournament
Only two times in the NCAA Tournament history have No. 14 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen of the tournament. Chattanooga was the last No. 14 seed to make it to the second weekend when they defeated Georgia and Illinois. Cleveland State did it back in 1986 when they defeated Indiana and Saint Joseph. The last No. 14 seed to win in the tournament was Abilene Christian when they pulled off the upset against Texas in 2021.
The Bobcats hope to pull off the upset against Kansas State in this tournament as this will be their second consecutive NCAA appearance. Last year they lost to Texas Tech but this year they hope to use their solid defense to slow down the Wildcat offense. Montana State has won eight straight games and has won 13 of their last 14. They are capable of defeating Kansas State if they are able to slow down the Wildcats on offense and keep Kansas State from getting second-chance points.
Colgate
Best Wins: At Syracuse (80-68), Lafayette (79-61), at Brown (77-68), Navy (87-73), and at Navy (64-60)
Notable Defeats: At Buffalo (87-88), Duquesne (80-85), Delaware (68-72), at Penn (69-81), at Auburn (66-93), Vermont (72-73), Cornell (80-91), and American (60-61)
Conference Tournament Results: They won all three games defeating Loyola (MD) (92-73), Army (91-74), and Lafayette (79-61)
NCAA Tournament Seed and Opponent: No. 15 seed and they will play No. 2 seed Texas
NET Ranking: 101
KenPom Ranking: 114
RPI Ranking: 101
College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 98
Sagarin Ranking: 109
Quadrant 1 Record: 0-1
Quadrant 2 Record: 1-0
Chances and Odds to make it to the Sweet 16: 8%
Why Colgate can make a run in the NCAA Tournament
Only 10 No. 15 seeds have won in the first round of the NCAA tournament. However, in recent history, two No. 15 seeds defeated a No. 2 seed when St. Peters defeated Kentucky in last year’s tournament and No. 15 seed Oral Roberts in the 2021 tournament the year prior won against No. 2 seed Ohio State. Colgate could pull off the upset as they are an efficient offense according to KenPom.com.
The Raiders shot very well from beyond the three-point arch so it is possible that they can defeat Texas. Their defense is not considered to be a strength and they will be playing a very solid and balanced Texas team in the opening round. It is a possibility however that Colgate if they are able to shoot the ball well from the outside as they did on the road against Syracuse earlier in the season, an upset is possible.
Iona
Best Wins: Saint Louis (84-62), Niagara (78-56), Princeton (70-64), Seattle (83-72), Pepperdine (76-66), Quinnipiac (78-72), Siena (93-60), and at Rider (80-78)
Notable Defeats: At Hofstra (78-83), Santa Clara (76-86), at New Mexico (74-82), Southern Methodist (81-85), at Quinnipiac (58-81), Rider (67-70), and at Siena (53-70),
Conference Tournament Results: They won all three games defeating Mount Saint Mary’s (74-54), Niagara (71-59), and Marist (76-55)
NCAA Tournament Seed and Opponent: No. 13 seed and they will play No. 4 seed UConn
NET Ranking: 58
KenPom Ranking: 74
RPI Ranking: 47
College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 51
Sagarin Ranking: 79
Quadrant 1 Record: 0-1
Quadrant 2 Record: 0-2
Chances and Odds to make it to the Sweet 16: 7%
Why Iona can make a run in the NCAA Tournament
The 2021 NCAA Tournament saw two No. 13 seeds defeat a No. 4 seed when North Texas defeated Purdue and Ohio beat Virginia. Iona would like to have the success LaSalle had in the 2013 tournament when the Explorers when advanced to the Sweet 16 that year. Iona has a Hall of Fame coach in Rick Pitino who has guided two different teams to national championships in 1996 and 2013 (even though it was later vacated by the NCAA) and as a coach reached the Final Four seven times.
Iona as a program has participated in the NCAA tournament six times since 2016. The Gaels have won 14 straight games and they have a tough opponent in UConn but it is not out of the realm of possibility that Iona can pull off the upset with their strong defensive mindset.
Furman
Best Wins: Belmont (67-55), South Carolina (79-60), Chattanooga (79-58), (Appalachian State (65-61), Stephen F. Austin (72-70), at Chattanooga (77-69), and Samford (93-79)
Notable Defeats: Penn State (68-73), Old Dominion (77-82), High Point (82-85), at North Carolina State (73-92), at Western Carolina (67-79), UNC Greensboro (80-88), and at the Citadel (65-69)
Conference Tournament Results: They won all three games defeating Mercer (73-58), Western Carolina (83-80), and Chattanooga (88-79)
NCAA Tournament Seed and Opponent: No. 13 seed and they will play No. 4 seed Virginia
NET Ranking: 88
KenPom Ranking: 89
RPI Ranking: 85
College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 92
Sagarin Ranking: 80
Quadrant 1 Record: 0-2
Quadrant 2 Record: 1-0
Why Furman can make a run in the NCAA Tournament
The Paladins have an interesting resume heading into the tournament as they defeated a power five conference team in South Carolina, had good, quality wins against Belmont, Stephen F. Austin, and Appalachian State, and they defeated Chattanooga three times this season. However, they have bad losses to the Citadel, Western Carolina, and High Point. The good news is that Furman has won 14 of their last 15 games and their fanbase is excited as this is their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1980.
The Paladins can really shoot the ball from beyond the three-point line and if Virginia lets the Paladins play at a fast pace, there is an opportunity for Furman to pull off the upset.