NCAA Tournament 2023: Mid-major teams with best shot at winning games
By Ryan Kay
These three teams can potentially pull off some upsets in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Drake
Best Wins: Wyoming (61-56), Louisana (76-64), Tarleton State (71-64), Mississippi State (58-52), Bradley (86-61), Indiana State (70-68), at Belmont (79-61), Southern Illinois (82-59), and Belmont (70-56)
Notable Defeats: At Indiana State (73-75), at Richmond (52-82), at St. Louis (75-83), at Missouri State (49-52), at Southern Illinois (49-53), Missouri State (62-65), at Bradley (61-73)
Conference Tournament Results: They won all three games defeating Murray State (74-62), Southern Illinois (65-52), and Bradley (77-51)
NCAA Tournament Seed and Opponent: No. 12 seed and they will play No. 5 seed Miami (FL)
NET Rankings: 55
KenPom Ranking: 66
RPI Ranking: 30
College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 55
Sagarin Ranking: 55
Quadrant 1 Record: 1-1
Quadrant 2 Record: 3-3
Chances and Odds to make it to the Sweet 16: 14%
Why Drake can make a run in the NCAA Tournament
The No. 5 seed vs. No. 12 matchup has seen 52 upsets since the tournament expanded in 1985. In 2013, three No. 12 seeds pulled off the upsets over No. 5 seeds, and last year, two No. 12 seeds New Mexico State and Richmond defeated their No. 5 seed opponents. Drake’s last NCAA Tournament appearance was in 2021 when they defeated Wichita State in the First Four game but lost to USC in the first round. Drake is very capable of defeating Miami (FL) as they have shown they can beat power five conference teams as they defeated Mississippi State in a great defensive game by the Bulldogs.
Drake has won 13 of their last 14 games in a respectable mid-major conference the Missouri Valley and the head coach’s son, Tucker DeVries was the MVC player of the year. Miami (FL) is a good team but Drake can be another No. 12 seed to pull off an upset in this year’s tournament.
Louisana
Best Wins: Harvard (75-61), Louisana Tech (94-88), at Southern Methodist (76-72), Samford (75-58), Southern Miss (75-61), at South Alabama (79-76), Troy (72-57), Marshall (77-67), and South Alabama (79-76)
Notable Defeats: At Drake (64-76), at Texas (72-100), at Old Dominion (66-70), at Southern Miss (71-82), at Troy (65-80), and James Madison (68-74)
Conference Tournament Results: They won all three games defeating Georgia Southern (67-49), Texas State (64-58), and South Alabama (71-66)
NCAA Tournament Seed and Opponent: No. 13 seed and they will play No. 4 seed Tennessee
NET Ranking: 89
KenPom Ranking: 92
RPI Ranking: 37
College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 99
Sagarin Ranking: 97
Quadrant 1 Record: 0-2
Quadrant 2 Record: 1-3
Chances and Odds to make it to the Sweet 16: 12%
Why Louisana can make a run in the NCAA Tournament
The Ragin Cajuns have had an up-and-down season winning nine of their last ten games with some good wins over Harvard, Louisana Tech, and Samford. Then they lost three games in a row including losses to Coastal Carolina and Old Dominion. Louisana after that stretch of losses won 10 consecutive games with some nice wins over Marshall and Southern Mississippi. The Ragin Cajuns then presided to lose three of their next four games before ending their regular season play with five straight wins.
Louisana has a tough match-up against a team in Tennessee that is ranked No. 4 in the NET rankings. Louisana can put up points and is led by Jordan Brown who was named to the All-Sun Belt first team. However, it will be a difficult task for the Ragin Cajuns to pull off the upset against the Volunteers.
Charleston
Best Wins: Virginia Tech (77-75), Kent State (74-72), Colorado State (74-64), Richmond (92-90), Davidson (89-66), Chattanooga (85-78), Old Dominion (75-60), Stetson (65-60), at Towson (76-74), at UNC Wilmington (71-69), Towson (83-75), and UNC Wilmington (93-61)
Notable Defeats: At North Carolina (86-102), Hofstra (81-85), and at Drexel (69-70)
Conference Tournament Results: They won all three games defeating Stony Brook (74-52), Towson (77-72), and UNC Wilmington (63-58)
NCAA Tournament Seed and Opponent: No. 12 seed and they will play No. 5 seed San Diego State
NET Ranking: 51
KenPom Ranking: 73
RPI Rankings: 35
KenPom Ranking: 73
College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 63
Sagarin Ranking: 70
Quadrant 1 Record: 0-1
Quadrant 2 Record: 2-0
Chances and Odds to make it to the Sweet 16: 22%
Why Charleston can make a run in the NCAA Tournament
Charleston has won their last ten games and only lost three games this entire season. The Cougars did win their conference tournament receiving an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament and shared the conference regular season championship with Hofstra. Charleston has some good, quality non-conference victories against Virginia Tech, Kent State, and Colorado State. Not many teams rank in the top 20 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and Charleston could for good reason defeat San Diego State with their three-point shooting.