NCAA Tournament 2023: Mid-major teams with best shot at winning games

Florida Atlantic and Saint Mary’s are two mid-major teams that have proven on the court this season that they are more than capable of making it to the Sweet Sixteen.

Florida Atlantic

Best Wins: At Florida  (76-74), Florida Gulf (85-53), South Alabama (84-59), at North Texas (50-46), UAB (88-86), Charlotte (71-67), North Texas (66-62), Middle Tennessee (85-67), at Charlotte (67-52), at Louisana Tech (76-72), Bryant (85-74), Florida Gulf Coast (85-53), and Northern Kentucky (67-52)

Notable Defeats: At Mississippi (67-80), at Middle Tennessee (70-74), and at UAB (77-86)

Conference Tournament Results: They won all three games defeating Western Kentucky (75-51), Middle Tennessee (68-65), and UAB (78-56)

NCAA Tournament Seed and Opponent: No. 8 seed and they will play No. 9 seed Memphis

Net Ranking: 13

KenPom Ranking: 26

RPI Ranking: 10

College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 34

Sagarin Ranking: 42

Quadrant 1 Record: 2-1

Quadrant 2 Record: 4-2

Chances and Odds to make it to the Sweet 16: 20%

Why Florida Atlantic can make a run in the NCAA Tournament

The Owls did very well this season by winning the Conference USA regular season title this year and many experts may argue that this has been the best the conference has been from top to bottom in years. Florida Atlantic has won their last seven games and ten of the last eleven and also won 19 games this season by double-digits.

The Owls have had an outstanding season especially when they got college basketball fans’ attention starting with an impressive non-conference victory over Florida on the road and ending with road victories over Charlotte and Louisana Tech. In conference play, they defeated Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, UAB, and North Texas all twice this season. The Owls are a No. 8 seed as opposed to a double-digit seed like the vast majority of mid-major teams for legit reasons.

Florida Atlantic has a tough first-round match-up against Memphis who defeated Houston in their conference tournament championship game. The location also favors Memphis as the game is in Columbus, OH which is not necessarily a far drive for the Tigers fans willing to make the drive to see their team play. However, the Owls are a talented team led by sophomore guards Johnell Davis and Alija Martin. Florida Atlantic can score in a variety of ways and Memphis needs to be able to stop them. If the Owls can defeat the Tigers they will likely face Purdue in the second round and a potential victory over the Boilermakers would put them in the Sweet Sixteen.

Saint Mary’s

Best Wins: North Texas (63-33), Oral Roberts (78-70), Hofstra (76-48), Vanderbilt (75-65), New Mexico State (81-68), San Diego State (68-61), at Santa Clara (67-64), Loyola Marymount (76-62), Missouri State (66-46), Wyoming (66-54), at San Francisco (68-59), at BYU (57-56), Gonzaga (78-70), at Portland (81-64), and BYU (71-65)

Notable Defeats: Washington (64-68), New Mexico (65-69), Houston (48-53), Colorado State (60-62), Gonzaga (51-77), at Loyola Marymount (74-78), and at Gonzaga (68-77)

Conference Tournament Results: They defeated BYU (76-69) but lost to Gonzaga (51-77)

NCAA Tournament Seed and Opponent: No. 5 Seed and they will play No. 12 seed VCU

NET Ranking: 11

KenPom Ranking: 11

RPI Ranking: 12

College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 18

Sagarin Ranking: 17

Quadrant 1 Record: 2-3

Quadrant 2 Record: 7-2

Chances and Odds to make it to the Sweet 16: 29%

Why Saint Mary’s can make a run in the NCAA Tournament

Saint Mary’s in Quadrant one and Quadrant two games this season have a combined nine victories which is very impressive for a non-power five conference team. The Gaels only have lost twice on their home court at University Credit Union Pavilion and those two defeats were only by two and four points. Saint Mary’s has two high-quality victories against Gonzaga and San Diego State who both are ranked in the top 15 in the NET Rankings. The Gael also defeated Oral Roberts and  North Texas who are both ranked in the top 40 in the NET rankings.

Saint Mary’s were also co-regular season WCC champions along with Gonzaga which is not an easy task to accomplish and the Gaels have 11 victories against teams ranked in the top 100 in the NET rankings, which only a few teams can say that they have that many high quality wins this season. Saint Mary’s in conference play also beat Santa Clara twice and BYU three times this season.

On paper, the Gaels have a favorable match-up against No. 12 seed VCU but the Rams won the Atlantic 10 conference tournament and they are the winners of nine straight games. However, Saint Mary’s should defeat VCU in their first-round match, and if they indeed win, they play the winner of Iona and UConn. Out of all the mid-major teams mentioned in this article, Saint Mary’s has the best chance to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.